TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x76f8…5145

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
189
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: NBA, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 62 out of 100; worst Music at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.61
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$19.44
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.34
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+65.8%+$169.8
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$209.44
Will a contestant numbered 1 - 25 win Beast Games: Season 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$34.3
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Harry Potter" on Hot Ones?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+143.9%+$386.45
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+117.4%+$124.74
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$15.84
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$153.12
Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20.23
Will Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$94.05
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$644Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.4%+$182.78
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$113.98
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$18.46
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$250.8
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$21.28
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$92.34
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$302.1
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$153.4
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$38.81
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$25.22
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14.52
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.32
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$77.19
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+145.7%+$194.5
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$79.56
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$10.34
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$139.2
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.2
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.24
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$50.53
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.84
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$70.65
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$498.1
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.46
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+161%+$93.77
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+203%+$185.59
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$210.63
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.25
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$149.49
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$26.95
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$80.19
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+459.5%+$96.91
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.23
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.95
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+31.6%+$32.16
Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22.1
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.26
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$141.75
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29%+$115.54
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.44
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$237.6
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+138.1%+$164.72
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,049Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$262.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$246.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+354.5%+$72.54
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+193%+$412.98
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$137.28
Will Trump say "First Term" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+26.6%+$11.97
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+47.1%+$19.52
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$42.78
Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+40.8%+$209.67
Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$202.57
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by December 29, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$44.37
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.35
Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+733.3%+$153.12
All 22 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.45
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$79.12
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$183.68
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$373.1
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+28.2%+$93.94
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+33.3%+$36
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+40.8%+$10.44
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$206.8
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+108.3%+$474.24
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+61.8%+$220.41
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+198.7%+$125.06
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+497.5%+$696.92
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$217.44
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$26.22
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,096Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$365.25
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$304.09
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$289.71
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+48%+$157.27
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$50.6
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$389.4
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$150.12
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.92
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.41
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.5
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.2
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$103.68
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$227.95
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$98.04
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+206.2%+$195.95
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$138.6
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99.08
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$36.49
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$33.44
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$229.14
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.44
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.48
Will PLN win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$70.08
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$14.26
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+27.5%+$138.77
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$91.91
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+28.2%+$148.72
Will António José Seguro win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+29.9%+$20.24
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$64.16
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+168.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocksbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.86
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Grambling State Tigersbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+376.2%+$444.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$353.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+426.3%+$221.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$209.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+108.3%+$463.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+52.9%+$5.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$62.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$542Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$542.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 - Map 1 Winnerbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$267.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$483.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.