Wallet 0x77bc…b91b
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x77bcf759a5bbbf604a52d839d5f68ead4c78b91b
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$2,234,218 staked over 19,592 qualified picks in 16 categories, 12 of 16 below 50.
Best category
MLB
$567 staked over 17 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.11 per pick.
See the full MLB boardSecond best
Ligue 1
$77,012 staked over 694 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.02 per pick.
See the full Ligue 1 boardThird best
Asian League
$165,611 staked over 1,657 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.01 per pick.
See the full Asian League boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 19,592 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category16 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLBlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $567 | before 6%in play 94%, over 17 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 07 after the start | 3 h 36to the end, median over 94 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.28102% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 102% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 12 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.6 | +0.27 | 55c | +57.9% | 62 |
The 17 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 17 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $77,012 | before 52%in play 48%, over 694 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 min before the start | 4 h 51to the end, median over 1,108 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02106% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 106% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 360 of 694 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 694 | 48.4%336 W · 358 L | +14.9 | +0.02 | 46c | -3.2% | 52 |
The 694 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 694 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $165,611 | before 38%in play 62%, over 1,657 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 10 min after the start | 4 h 01to the end, median over 3,358 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 59% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 930 of 1,657 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,657 | 45.8%759 W · 898 L | +17.3 | +0.01 | 45c | -11.3% | 51 |
The 1,657 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,657 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast settled Dec 21, 2025, EST | $5,112 | before 19%in play 81%, over 16 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 min after the start | 5 h 34to the end, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 16 of 16 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2 | +0.01 | 49c | +0.2% | 51 |
The 16 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 16 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Dec 21, 2025, EST | $30 | —too few: 1 pick | 2 h 21to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.26no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.14 | 14c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $244,394 | before 57%in play 43%, over 1,977 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 min before the start | 5 h 03to the end, median over 3,160 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,085 of 1,984 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,984 | 44.3%878 W · 1,106 L | -17.0 | -0.01 | 45c | -13.9% | 49 |
The 1,984 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,984 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $261,757 | before 43%in play 57%, over 2,699 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 min after the start | 4 h 27to the end, median over 4,890 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,391 of 2,699 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,699 | 42.7%1,152 W · 1,547 L | -46.1 | -0.02 | 44c | -12.1% | 48 |
The 2,699 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,699 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $302,345 | before 59%in play 41%, over 2,330 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 30 min before the start | 4 h 54to the end, median over 3,741 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,236 of 2,341 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,341 | 43%1,007 W · 1,334 L | -40.7 | -0.02 | 45c | -15.7% | 48 |
The 2,341 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,341 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $82,907 | before 71%in play 29%, over 651 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 25 before the start | 5 h 52to the end, median over 995 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 314 of 651 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 651 | 37.5%244 W · 407 L | -12.0 | -0.02 | 39c | -14.7% | 48 |
The 651 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 651 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $96,507 | before 57%in play 43%, over 903 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min before the start | 4 h 13to the end, median over 1,679 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 463 of 903 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 903 | 40.5%366 W · 537 L | -20.7 | -0.02 | 43c | -20.3% | 48 |
The 903 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 903 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie Alast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $126,262 | before 63%in play 37%, over 1,086 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 45 min before the start | 5 h 19to the end, median over 1,596 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 600 of 1,086 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,086 | 42.5%462 W · 624 L | -25.7 | -0.02 | 45c | -19.2% | 47 |
The 1,086 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,086 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $58,096 | before 55%in play 45%, over 909 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 13 min before the start | 4 h 03to the end, median over 1,737 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 531 of 909 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 909 | 44.4%404 W · 505 L | -22.5 | -0.02 | 47c | -15% | 47 |
The 909 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 909 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $278,255 | before 39%in play 61%, over 2,548 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 8 min after the start | 4 h 14to the end, median over 4,912 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,528 of 2,559 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,559 | 43.8%1,120 W · 1,439 L | -65.0 | -0.03 | 46c | -18.3% | 47 |
The 2,559 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,559 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Australian A Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $45,371 | before 76%in play 24%, over 361 Australian A League picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 03 before the start | 5 h 54to the end, median over 496 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 150 of 361 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 361 | 38.8%140 W · 221 L | -10.7 | -0.03 | 42c | -17.1% | 47 |
The 361 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 361 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $318,225 | before 69%in play 31%, over 2,122 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 04 before the start | 5 h 05to the end, median over 3,569 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,258 of 2,122 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,122 | 36.9%784 W · 1,338 L | -66.6 | -0.03 | 40c | -20.5% | 47 |
The 2,122 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,122 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $171,769 | before 57%in play 43%, over 1,592 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 25 min before the start | 4 h 56to the end, median over 2,389 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 804 of 1,592 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,592 | 40.3%641 W · 951 L | -52.5 | -0.03 | 44c | -18.7% | 46 |
The 1,592 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 19,592 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,592 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 14
- What they are worth now
- $314bought for $314
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 0worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 14, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 131 | 55c | 76c | $99 |
| Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 107.59 | 60c | 77c | $82 |
| Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 2.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 79 | 58c | 45c | $36 |
| Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 3.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 49.64 | 75c | 72c | $35 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 33 | 31c | 60c | $20 |
| Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 145 | 13c | 12c | $17 |
| Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 2.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 15.24 | 50c | 55c | $8 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 12.93 | 76c | 64c | $8 |
| FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs. FK Kharkiv: O/U 0.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 10.2 | 2c | 46c | $5 |
| Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to Score (opens in a new tab)backed No | 7.56 | 37c | 32c | $2 |
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.