Wallet 0x8765…ed81
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x87650b9f63563f7c456d9bbcceee5f9faf06ed81
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 2,937
- What they are worth now
- $60,693
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 0
bought for $396,511
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 2,937, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?backed No | 15,716shares | 96c | 98c | $15,425 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?backed Yes | 24,620shares | 50c | 47c | $11,633 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?backed Yes | 24,999shares | 50c | 19c | $4,862 |
| Market 0x80eb…1139backed outcome 1 | 600shares | 17c | 93c | $555 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?backed Yes | 25,000shares | 50c | 2c | $463 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?backed No | 500shares | 16c | 93c | $463 |
| Market 0x7fc8…2473backed outcome 1 | 453.63shares | 39c | 100c | $453 |
| Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?backed No | 500shares | 8c | 79c | $393 |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?backed No | 400shares | 22c | 92c | $368 |
| Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?backed No | 288.06shares | 4c | 89c | $256 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 4,018
- Categories scored
- 54
- Categories below 50
- 25
Best Category: MLB, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).
Best Category MLB at 63 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 42.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 4,018 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| AIlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Ukrainelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Earningslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +228.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 15cpaid | +364.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| F1last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| UFClast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.