TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88d7…5762

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST2842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+203%+$133.99
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27%+$11.26
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$28.8
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$40
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+37%+$15.96
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$36.36
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$311.44
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$13.4
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+37%+$154.82
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+32%+$32.02
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+306.3%+$180.87
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+88%+$75.06
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+29.7%+$8.02
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+277.6%+$66.16
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.83
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$69
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.58
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.57
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$99.4
FL-6 special election: Weil (D) vs. Fine (R)backed Weil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.8
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$68.3
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+79.3%+$99.32
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.5%+$9.12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+105.5%+$74.45
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$29.89
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$71
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.9
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+29.9%+$11.96
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+26.6%+$14.7
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+61.3%+$15.2
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$57.37
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.7
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$13
Will Russia capture Shakhove by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$12.24
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.93
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.6
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$43.33
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$32.82
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$31.85
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$18.98
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$160.32
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.72
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+65%+$39.22
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.56
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+95.8%+$138.15
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 30-40%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$96.03
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$73.72
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+48.1%+$64.24
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+117.4%+$43.2
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+144.5%+$23.01
Will Lisa Murkowski vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5
Will Mitch McConnell vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+25%+$4
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+30.2%+$100.2
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+58.7%+$132.15
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$23.84
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.37
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+333.8%+$76.18
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.65
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.3
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$67.29
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50.6
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.4
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.24
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+233.3%+$70
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.3%+$21.48
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.64
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.71
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,119.62
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+39.4%+$126.24
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+105.9%+$27.74
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.1
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.25
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$36.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.