TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x897a…4194

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
211
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 64 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT5754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.44
Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.1
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+93.1%+$177.05
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.71
Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$31.4
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.94
Will Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.35
Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$8.62
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.4
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.08
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.18
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+393.3%+$123.28
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.32
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$113.1
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$21.58
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Jordan Herrera be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+294.3%+$49.35
Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.25
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.57
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$49.92
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+117%+$87.8
Will Rick Brattin be the MO-05 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.8
Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$7.54
Will Marlene Galán-Woods be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.05
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.83
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT5541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$19.8
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+326.4%+$52.62
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.15
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+78.3%+$24.93
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.72
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.44
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.97
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.51
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+73.6%+$8.48
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.46
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+57.6%+$25.69
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.92
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.64
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$23.57
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+39.5%+$11.55
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.12
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.14
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+279%+$38.28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.84
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.34
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.34
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+109.9%+$11.54
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.81
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.11
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.34
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.53
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+125.9%+$150.57
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.27
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+165.3%+$77.61
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+303.4%+$394.81
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.6
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+132.3%+$506.06
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.36
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.3
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+140.5%+$32.25
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+104%+$18.56
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 240m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.63
Uber # of trips above 3.6B in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.91
Uber # of trips above 3.4B in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.77
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.17
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.88
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.05
All 19 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ariana Grande feature Billie Eilish on Petal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$5.07
Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in the US in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.96
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.46
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+29%+$8.88
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 4 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+147.9%+$493.23
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.76
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.3
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.06
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$21.15
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$18.86
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$36.09
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.95
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.07
Will Drake have a #1 hit in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.9
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.49
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.59
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.55
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.37
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.68
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.41
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.63
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.15
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+439%+$63.78
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.05
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.72
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+251.7%+$96.05
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+656.9%+$456.73
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.28
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will King Charles say "Queen" or "Elizabeth" during the joint meeting of Congress?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.31
Will King Charles say "250" or "250th" during the joint meeting of Congress?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.04
All 15 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+161%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Tires: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+908.3%+$508.9
Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 9 million views this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+279.1%+$31.79
Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.44
Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.39
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.93
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+367.6%+$104.81
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.84
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.52
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.42
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.43
Will "DAN DA DAN Season 2" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+122.8%+$21.46
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+72.5%+$141.27
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+1,303.7%+$220.37
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
All 14 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT8100%8 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+152.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$56.05
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+163%+$85.03
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$23.12
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+110.2%+$54.11
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$56.69
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$14.74
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$114.43
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+200%+$93.14
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+81.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+82.9%+$60.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$23.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.