TailMyPicks
Menu
Check another

Wallet 0x91e6…0a20

Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Rebuilt .

Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end

$92,645 staked over 3,377 qualified picks in 27 categories, 12 of 27 below 50.

63

Best category

Premier League

$1,067 staked over 56 qualified picks

Above the line at +0.11 per pick.

See the full Premier League board
58

Second best

La Liga

$1,901 staked over 73 qualified picks

Above the line at +0.08 per pick.

See the full La Liga board
56

Third best

Bundesliga

$1,194 staked over 50 qualified picks

Above the line at +0.05 per pick.

See the full Bundesliga board

If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast

Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,377 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.

Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.

Record by category27 Categories

The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.

What these columns mean
Category
The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
Staked
The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
When it bets
Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
Holds
How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
At your price
What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
Qualified picks
Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
Win rate
How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
vs expected
Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
Realizable edge
Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
Avg entry
The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
ROI per pick
The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
Tail Score
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
CategoryStakedWhen it betsHoldsAt your priceQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,067before 0%in play 100%, over 56 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 10 after the start1 h 56to the end, median over 311 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.18112% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 112% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 51 of 56 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)5673.2%41 W · 15 L+9.2+0.1657c+25.1%63

The 56 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 56 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

La Ligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,901before 0%in play 100%, over 73 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 46 min after the start2 h 03to the end, median over 356 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.1096% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 96% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 67 of 73 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)7367.1%49 W · 24 L+7.4+0.1057c+9.2%58

The 73 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 73 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Bundesligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,194before 0%in play 100%, over 50 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 25 after the start1 h 51to the end, median over 178 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.08101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 48 of 50 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)5064%32 W · 18 L+3.8+0.0856c+8.5%56

The 50 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 50 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

College Football Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT$953before 0%in play 100%, over 47 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 54 after the start58 minto the end, median over 112 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.07105% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 105% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 40 of 47 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)4759.6%28 W · 19 L+3.2+0.0753c+6.6%55

The 47 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 47 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

MLBlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,116before 0%in play 100%, over 36 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 47 min after the start2 h 26to the end, median over 99 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.0681% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 81% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 28 of 36 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)3658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6+0.0751c+10.1%55

The 36 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 36 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$4,947before 0%in play 100%, over 227 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 44 after the start51 minto the end, median over 652 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 18% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 194 of 227 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)22753.3%121 W · 106 L+9.8+0.0449c-4.3%54

The 227 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 227 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Valorantlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,221before 2%in play 98%, over 41 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 07 after the start1 h 14to the end, median over 95 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.03out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 55% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 41 of 41 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)4153.7%22 W · 19 L+2.6+0.0647c-3.7%54

The 41 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 41 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Tennislast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$14,725before 3%in play 97%, over 549 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 10 after the start1 h 52to the end, median over 1,489 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 49% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 444 of 549 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)54955.2%303 W · 246 L+20.9+0.0451c+0.3%54

The 549 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 549 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT$1,246before 0%in play 100%, over 65 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 45 min after the start1 h 40to the end, median over 274 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 61 of 65 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)6558.5%38 W · 27 L+3.2+0.0554c-0.1%54

The 65 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 65 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 7, 2026, EDT$5,867before 0%in play 100%, over 245 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 37 min after the start3 h 16to the end, median over 869 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 54% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 205 of 245 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)24554.7%134 W · 111 L+6.0+0.0252c-3.4%52

The 245 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 245 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Cricketlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$493before 0%in play 100%, over 13 Cricket picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 53 after the start4 h 55to the end, median over 33 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 43% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 13 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4+0.0351c-6.7%51

The 13 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

South American Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$3,739before 0%in play 100%, over 167 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 46 min after the start2 h 40to the end, median over 695 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.02131% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 131% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 152 of 167 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)16755.1%92 W · 75 L+1.9+0.0154c-4.4%51

The 167 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 167 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Other European Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,307before 0%in play 100%, over 60 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 18 after the start3 h 16to the end, median over 306 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 55 of 60 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)6061.7%37 W · 23 L+0.7+0.0160c-4.5%51

The 60 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 60 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Mlslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,492before 0%in play 100%, over 79 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 47 min after the start1 h 31to the end, median over 404 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 70 of 79 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)7957%45 W · 34 L+0.6+0.0156c-3.4%51

The 79 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 79 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Euroleaguelast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT$679before 0%in play 100%, over 25 Euroleague picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 08 after the start2 h 57to the end, median over 62 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 24 of 25 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)2548%12 W · 13 L+0.1+0.0147c-13.4%50

The 25 picks behind Euroleague are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 25 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

CS2last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$21,757before 5%in play 95%, over 706 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 49 min after the start2 h 19to the end, median over 1,623 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 658 of 706 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)70649.7%351 W · 355 L-0.60.0050c-12%50

The 706 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 706 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Lollast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$9,667before 1%in play 99%, over 231 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 51 min after the start2 h 56to the end, median over 434 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 217 of 231 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)23148.9%113 W · 118 L-0.70.0049c-14.4%50

The 231 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 231 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Asian Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$2,443before 0%in play 100%, over 100 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 50 min after the start2 h 42to the end, median over 446 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled+0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 88 of 100 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)10055%55 W · 45 L-0.40.0055c-8.4%50

The 100 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 100 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Australian A Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$34—too few: 2 picks2 h 44to the end, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)250%1 W · 1 L-0.2-0.0959c-26.5%49

The 2 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

NHLlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT$3,711before 0%in play 100%, over 168 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 05 after the start1 h 45to the end, median over 635 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 130 of 168 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)16851.8%87 W · 81 L-2.2-0.0153c-12.3%49

The 168 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 168 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

WNBAlast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT$199—too few: 6 picks1 h 15to the end, median over 17 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)650%3 W · 3 L-0.4-0.0757c-22.4%48

The 6 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Serie Alast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$825before 0%in play 100%, over 41 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 35 min after the start1 h 31to the end, median over 207 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 37 of 41 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)4151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.7-0.0455c-21%47

The 41 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 41 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

UFClast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$1,729before 0%in play 100%, over 27 UFC picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 50 after the start44 minto the end, median over 36 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 27 of 27 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)2729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.8-0.1040c-46.4%44

The 27 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 27 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Dota2last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$7,404before 2%in play 98%, over 227 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 09 after the start2 h 05to the end, median over 421 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 222 of 227 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)22739.6%90 W · 137 L-15.2-0.0746c-33.2%43

The 227 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 227 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

NFL Inactivelast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT$208—too few: 9 picks1 h 24to the end, median over 14 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.33no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1-0.2446c-62.5%43

The 9 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT$1,829before 0%in play 100%, over 100 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 04 after the start3 h 11to the end, median over 453 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 76 of 100 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)10048%48 W · 52 L-7.9-0.0856c-19.8%43

The 100 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 100 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

Ligue 1last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT$891before 0%in play 100%, over 27 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 19 after the start1 h 05to the end, median over 125 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled-0.19no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 24 of 27 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)2740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.3-0.1657c-38.4%41

The 27 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,377 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 27 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures.

What is a Tail Score?

A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.

The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.

The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.

Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.

Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.