TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b5d…fbb6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
246
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: AI, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category AI at 65 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5554.5%30 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$55.38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$22.25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45.8%+$16.51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$13.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.04
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+60%+$7.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$32.82
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.64
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42%+$19.84
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+214.2%+$60.42
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+159.4%+$28.85
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+184.8%+$102.74
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$12.76
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.4
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.43
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.7
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT4936.7%18 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$19.2
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+273.7%+$82.12
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.6
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+36%+$21.74
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$46.52
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 290m and 300m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 280m and 290m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.95
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.6
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.76
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+217.2%+$142.8
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.87
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+240.6%+$369.39
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.7
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+47%+$42.37
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+202.1%+$202.1
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.45
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.8
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$97.06
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$24.8
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$5.37
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+296.8%+$89.05
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.2
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.5%+$60.24
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$94.91
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$9.88
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.3
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.38
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$33.56
Will Santos Quispe Quispe win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.94
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+525%+$63
Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+250%+$43.75
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$11.9
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$14.28
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.1%+$31.84
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$23.79
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$250.05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.2
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.29
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.85
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+96.5%+$67.41
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+87.3%+$20.08
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.59
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.19
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$11.59
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$6.5
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$6.45
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+89.5%+$17.89
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$10.45
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.69
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$4.65
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.7
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1687.5%14 W · 2 L+5.4wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+52.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$17.09
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$17.6
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
X Money released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+87.3%+$9.32
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+108.1%+$68.72
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+68.2%+$17.73
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+40.1%+$11.16
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$13.2
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+46%+$6.3
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+131.8%+$35.07
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+121.2%+$23.02
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14.75
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+39.4%+$11.85
All 16 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.91
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.97
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+199.4%+$77.74
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.5
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$17.82
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.41
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.7
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$12.26
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$15.8
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$27.15
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$17
All 12 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.44
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+196.6%+$37.09
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+91.4%+$21.34
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.16
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.04
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.13
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+107.6%+$26.05
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked BC.Game Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.61
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$19.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+63.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+294.5%+$57.86
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$48.23
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Ratesbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$18.41
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$8.44
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+31.3%+$8.64
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16.2
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.84
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+60.4%+$15.3
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+37%+$6.75
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+297.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+26%+$8.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.