Wallet 0x9dd9…08bd
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x9dd9e18b9dcc393705e73966bc79eccbbd9108bd
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 435
- What they are worth now
- $59,037
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $53,734
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 435, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?backed No | 2,336shares | 27c | 79c | $1,834 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?backed No | 1,804shares | 69c | 91c | $1,633 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?backed No | 1,303shares | 67c | 92c | $1,192 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?backed No | 1,261shares | 38c | 86c | $1,084 |
| Market 0xe803…c159backed outcome 0 | 958shares | 90c | 96c | $922 |
| Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?backed No | 829shares | 73c | 100c | $828 |
| Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?backed No | 798.02shares | 56c | 100c | $796 |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?backed Yes | 865shares | 73c | 88c | $757 |
| Market 0x48d4…66febacked outcome 1 | 820shares | 64c | 92c | $750 |
| Market 0x0552…5f8cbacked outcome 0 | 959shares | 76c | 70c | $667 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5backed Under · resolved | 51shares | 45c | $0 | Counted |
| Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Team Aether - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Aether · resolved | 50.99shares | 63c | $0 | Counted |
| Will Akshay Bhatia finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?backed Yes · resolved | 48.53shares | 54c | $0 | Counted |
| KHL: Traktor vs. Ak Bars Kazanbacked Ak Bars Kazan · resolved | 47.99shares | 44c | $0 | Counted |
| Will Mark Wheeler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · resolved | 44shares | 3c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 4 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 1 never will: TailMyPicks scored that market and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 13,884
- Categories scored
- 52
- Categories below 50
- 27
Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).
Best Category Us Midterms at 60 out of 100; worst Olympics at 39.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 13,884 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| Earnings Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Space Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +252.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2025, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.