Wallet 0xa3c2…df3d
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xa3c2ec158f222f3f4f5f4f57b113d761a4d3df3d
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 144
- What they are worth now
- $960
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $1,057
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 144, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x47a3…7946backed outcome 1 | 229.03shares | 41c | 60c | $137 |
| Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-08-16?backed No | 115.07shares | 74c | 78c | $89 |
| Market 0x723d…a6c2backed outcome 1 | 114shares | 43c | 55c | $63 |
| Market 0x327f…f80cbacked outcome 1 | 65shares | 68c | 79c | $51 |
| SC Braga vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 2.5backed Under | 65shares | 52c | 73c | $47 |
| Market 0xa0b3…6e9cbacked outcome 1 | 65shares | 75c | 50c | $32 |
| Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?backed No | 30shares | 95c | 96c | $29 |
| Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes | 30shares | 78c | 96c | $29 |
| Market 0xbb16…e208backed outcome 1 | 29.07shares | 28c | 88c | $25 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?backed Yes | 30shares | 67c | 65c | $19 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5backed Over · resolved | 1,948shares | 40c | $0 | Counted |
| Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmicbacked Dino Prizmic · resolved | 1,716shares | 36c | $0 | Counted |
| Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia?backed Yes · resolved | 1,292shares | 2c | $0 | Never scored |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5backed Over · resolved | 294.16shares | 33c | $0 | Counted |
| Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?backed Yes · resolved | 287.49shares | 33c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 2 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 11,727
- Categories scored
- 47
- Categories below 50
- 20
Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).
Best Category Bundesliga at 63 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 11,727 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| MLBlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT | 373 | 43.4%162 W · 211 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Tennislast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Bundesligalast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Space Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +249%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.