Wallet 0xa4bd…e8a2
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xa4bd8f49695cf5d55924aca4cc2694952874e8a2
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$633,196 staked over 14,273 qualified picks in 53 categories, 23 of 53 below 50.
Best category
Crypto Milestones
$945 staked over 31 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.11 per pick.
See the full Crypto Milestones boardSecond best
Dota2
$19,867 staked over 340 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.11 per pick.
See the full Dota2 boardThird best
Euroleague
$7,463 staked over 122 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.11 per pick.
See the full Euroleague boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 14,273 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category53 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast settled Sep 6, 2026, EDT | $945 | —no start of play | 6 dresells, median over 174 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 125 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2098% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 31 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +6.4 | +0.21 | 44c | +71.8% | 63 |
The 31 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 31 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Mar 19, 2026, EDT | $19,867 | before 33%in play 67%, over 337 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min after the start | 2 h 41resells, median over 639 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 362 of them sold before the market settled | +0.15128% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 128% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 263 of 340 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9 | +0.11 | 52c | +13% | 62 |
The 340 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 340 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Euroleague Inactivelast settled Mar 18, 2026, EDT | $7,463 | before 55%in play 45%, over 122 Euroleague picks with a start of play; typically bought 23 min before the start | 4 h 12resells, median over 229 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 133 of them sold before the market settled | +0.17134% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 134% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 75 of 122 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5 | +0.13 | 56c | +19.7% | 62 |
The 122 picks behind Euroleague are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 122 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AIlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $9,027 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 667 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 486 of them sold before the market settled | +0.14125% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 125% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 43 of 149 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 149 | 55%82 W · 67 L | +17.0 | +0.11 | 44c | +24% | 61 |
The 149 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 149 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast settled Mar 21, 2026, EDT | $51,555 | before 37%in play 63%, over 687 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 min after the start | 2 h 41resells, median over 1,310 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 825 of them sold before the market settled | +0.14147% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 147% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 512 of 698 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3 | +0.09 | 54c | +5.1% | 60 |
The 698 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 698 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Earnings Inactivelast settled Mar 19, 2026, EDT | $573 | —no start of play | 22 h 25resells, median over 188 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 148 of them sold before the market settled | +0.19116% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 116% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 10 of 29 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7 | +0.16 | 32c | +74.3% | 60 |
The 29 picks behind Earnings are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 29 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Apr 7, 2026, EDT | $110,432 | before 42%in play 58%, over 1,974 Ncaa Basketball picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 min after the start | 3 h 14resells, median over 3,743 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2,438 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12161% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 161% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1,336 of 1,985 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2 | +0.07 | 57c | +7.3% | 58 |
The 1,985 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,985 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Token Launcheslast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $17,041 | —no start of play | 12 dresells, median over 473 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 310 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08104% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 104% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 41 of 153 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +11.6 | +0.08 | 46c | +10.9% | 57 |
The 153 picks behind Token Launches are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 153 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Boxing Inactivelast settled Feb 16, 2026, EST | $994 | —too few: 1 pick | 3 dresells, median over 47 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 37 of them sold before the market settled | +0.18105% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 105% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 7 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3 | +0.17 | 48c | +16.4% | 57 |
The 14 picks behind Boxing are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorant Inactivelast settled Mar 18, 2026, EDT | $8,410 | before 49%in play 51%, over 150 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 min after the start | 3 h 05resells, median over 288 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 179 of them sold before the market settled | +0.09137% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 137% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 100 of 151 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | +10.3 | +0.07 | 51c | +2.4% | 56 |
The 151 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 151 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Venezuelalast settled Aug 8, 2026, EDT | $1,052 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 121 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 103 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 69% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 5 of 22 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7 | +0.12 | 47c | +35.1% | 56 |
The 22 picks behind Venezuela are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 22 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions League Inactivelast settled May 31, 2026, EDT | $8,189 | before 34%in play 66%, over 207 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 min after the start | 2 h 47resells, median over 686 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 474 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08137% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 137% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 153 of 223 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1 | +0.06 | 50c | +2.3% | 56 |
The 223 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 223 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politics Inactivelast settled Jul 12, 2026, EDT | $1,107 | —no start of play | 5 dresells, median over 236 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 185 of them sold before the market settled | +0.10100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 22 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3 | +0.10 | 40c | +17.8% | 55 |
The 22 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 22 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lol Inactivelast settled Sep 13, 2026, EDT | $38,657 | before 61%in play 39%, over 537 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 25 before the start | 4 h 39resells, median over 993 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 619 of them sold before the market settled | +0.07134% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 134% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 299 of 544 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 544 | 54.2%295 W · 249 L | +26.8 | +0.05 | 49c | +1.7% | 55 |
The 544 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 544 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Aug 22, 2026, EDT | $46,616 | before 36%in play 64%, over 872 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 10 min after the start | 2 h 32resells, median over 1,681 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1,077 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08181% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 181% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 677 of 884 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.1 | +0.04 | 51c | -1.8% | 55 |
The 884 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 884 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Sep 25, 2026, EDT | $1,894 | —no start of play | 6 dresells, median over 274 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 215 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06112% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 112% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 12 of 54 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.9 | +0.05 | 43c | -7.3% | 54 |
The 54 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 54 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled May 13, 2026, EDT | $5,499 | before 29%in play 71%, over 181 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min after the start | 2 h 34resells, median over 599 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 376 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08188% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 188% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 131 of 182 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | +7.3 | +0.04 | 56c | -1.7% | 54 |
The 182 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 182 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast settled Jun 15, 2026, EDT | $24,439 | before 55%in play 45%, over 723 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 52 before the start | 3 h 46resells, median over 1,649 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1,019 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03110% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 110% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 366 of 740 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6 | +0.03 | 51c | -0.9% | 53 |
The 740 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 740 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politics Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $9,955 | —no start of play | 8 dresells, median over 727 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 522 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05134% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 134% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 48 of 152 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | +5.2 | +0.03 | 45c | -3.6% | 53 |
The 152 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 152 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $71,459 | before 53%in play 47%, over 1,774 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 29 min before the start | 3 h 47resells, median over 3,509 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2,272 of them sold before the market settled | +0.04131% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 131% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1,099 of 1,814 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,814 | 53.1%964 W · 850 L | +53.4 | +0.03 | 50c | -0.3% | 53 |
The 1,814 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,814 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Movies Inactivelast settled Aug 1, 2026, EDT | $4,424 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 895 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 608 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0286% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 86% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 53 of 138 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7 | +0.03 | 49c | +3.1% | 53 |
The 138 picks behind Movies are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 138 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweets Inactivelast settled Apr 1, 2026, EDT | $9,970 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 960 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 810 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06212% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 212% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 71 of 134 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6 | +0.03 | 28c | +20.9% | 53 |
The 134 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 134 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Chess Inactivelast settled Dec 30, 2025, EST | $277 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 46 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 28 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1181% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 81% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7 | +0.13 | 47c | +16.5% | 52 |
The 5 picks behind Chess are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast settled Mar 22, 2026, EDT | $15,474 | before 35%in play 65%, over 598 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 16 min after the start | 2 h 51resells, median over 1,873 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1,102 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03122% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 122% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 385 of 598 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6 | +0.02 | 53c | -2.5% | 52 |
The 598 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 598 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagues Inactivelast settled Mar 28, 2026, EDT | $9,743 | before 38%in play 62%, over 366 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min after the start | 3 h 18resells, median over 1,169 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 683 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02123% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 123% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 235 of 373 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5 | +0.02 | 53c | -5% | 52 |
The 373 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 373 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Commodities Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $2,418 | —no start of play | 5 dresells, median over 183 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 131 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03106% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 106% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 8 of 28 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9 | +0.03 | 50c | -7.3% | 52 |
The 28 picks behind Commodities are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 28 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weather Inactivelast settled Apr 10, 2026, EDT | $14,354 | before 84%in play 16%, over 123 Weather picks with a start of play; typically bought 13 h 30 before the start | 11 h 03resells, median over 3,635 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2,678 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 246 of 540 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6 | +0.01 | 36c | -13.9% | 51 |
The 540 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 540 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Football Inactivelast settled Jan 20, 2026, EST | $3,849 | before 52%in play 48%, over 104 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min before the start | 5 h 49resells, median over 242 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 129 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 63 of 108 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7 | +0.01 | 50c | -4.4% | 51 |
The 108 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 108 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 23, 2026, EDT | $220 | —no start of play | 7 dresells, median over 42 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 32 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05183% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 183% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1 | +0.03 | 57c | +18.2% | 51 |
The 5 picks behind China Taiwan are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| IPO Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $115 | —no start of play | 5 dresells, median over 52 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 44 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02120% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 120% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1 | +0.02 | 38c | +19.5% | 50 |
The 5 picks behind IPO are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT | $5,456 | before 53%in play 47%, over 91 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 32 before the start | 5 h 03resells, median over 292 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 190 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 49 of 115 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.3 | 0.00 | 52c | -12% | 50 |
The 115 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 115 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast settled Aug 1, 2026, EDT | $7,894 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 557 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 452 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 42 of 168 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | -0.9 | -0.01 | 46c | +2.8% | 49 |
The 168 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 168 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Apr 12, 2026, EDT | $352 | —too few: 6 picks | 2 dresells, median over 82 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 66 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2 | -0.01 | 35c | +43.1% | 49 |
The 12 picks behind Golf are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 12 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT | $11,383 | before 26%in play 74%, over 365 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 16 min after the start | 1 h 49resells, median over 977 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 623 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 271 of 368 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9 | -0.01 | 53c | -9.7% | 49 |
The 368 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 368 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast settled Aug 25, 2026, EDT | $27,673 | before 41%in play 59%, over 866 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 8 min after the start | 3 h 32resells, median over 2,487 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1,508 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 547 of 891 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5 | -0.01 | 53c | -9.5% | 49 |
The 891 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 891 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast settled May 16, 2026, EDT | $2,696 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 338 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 247 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 18 of 40 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4 | -0.01 | 41c | -23.8% | 49 |
The 40 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 40 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Liga Inactivelast settled Mar 22, 2026, EDT | $16,155 | before 43%in play 57%, over 570 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 min after the start | 3 h 30resells, median over 1,563 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 985 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 347 of 572 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5 | -0.01 | 53c | -8.5% | 49 |
The 572 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 572 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Mar 21, 2026, EDT | $10,856 | before 37%in play 63%, over 307 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 min after the start | 2 h 47resells, median over 808 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 477 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 213 of 307 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1 | -0.01 | 52c | -12.2% | 49 |
The 307 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 307 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Mar 22, 2026, EDT | $5,065 | before 53%in play 47%, over 103 Cricket picks with a start of play; typically bought 28 min before the start | 5 h 48resells, median over 233 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 163 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 67 of 106 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -0.9 | -0.01 | 45c | -20.4% | 49 |
The 106 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 106 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFC Inactivelast settled Aug 28, 2026, EDT | $4,444 | before 68%in play 32%, over 87 UFC picks with a start of play; typically bought 39 h 08 before the start | 4 h 42resells, median over 215 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 130 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 37 of 91 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.8 | -0.01 | 49c | -8.9% | 49 |
The 91 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 91 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast settled Sep 9, 2026, EDT | $13,836 | before 69%in play 31%, over 289 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 h 45 before the start | 21 h 05resells, median over 884 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 613 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 124 of 344 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -4.9 | -0.01 | 49c | -12.9% | 49 |
The 344 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 344 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesliga Inactivelast settled May 16, 2026, EDT | $10,501 | before 35%in play 65%, over 379 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 min after the start | 2 h 59resells, median over 1,100 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 671 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 266 of 381 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0 | -0.02 | 53c | -9.4% | 48 |
The 381 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 381 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Australian A Leaguelast settled May 11, 2026, EDT | $3,917 | before 27%in play 73%, over 131 Australian A League picks with a start of play; typically bought 13 min after the start | 2 h 57resells, median over 294 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 164 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 101 of 131 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9 | -0.02 | 52c | -15.5% | 48 |
The 131 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 131 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Midterms Inactivelast settled Aug 28, 2026, EDT | $699 | —no start of play | 15 dresells, median over 237 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 153 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 10 of 27 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.1 | -0.04 | 56c | -12.3% | 48 |
The 27 picks behind Us Midterms are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 27 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| F1 Inactivelast settled Mar 15, 2026, EDT | $363 | —too few: 8 picks | 20 h 15resells, median over 82 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 60 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8 | -0.06 | 40c | -42.1% | 48 |
The 12 picks behind F1 are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 12 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Space Inactivelast settled Feb 25, 2026, EST | $81 | —no start of play | 5 dresells, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 20 of them sold before the market settled | -0.22no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8 | -0.21 | 46c | -64.1% | 47 |
The 4 picks behind Space are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Jul 29, 2026, EDT | $1,697 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 186 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 148 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 36 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.9 | -0.05 | 53c | -10.3% | 46 |
The 36 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 36 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mls Inactivelast settled Mar 22, 2026, EDT | $1,379 | before 31%in play 69%, over 52 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 min after the start | 3 h 39resells, median over 207 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 105 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 40 of 55 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6 | -0.07 | 56c | -24.1% | 45 |
The 55 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 55 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $508 | —no start of play | 7 dresells, median over 214 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 144 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 23 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2 | -0.10 | 49c | -36.2% | 45 |
The 23 picks behind Macro Indicators are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 23 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast settled May 20, 2026, EDT | $5,210 | before 41%in play 59%, over 198 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 min after the start | 3 h 50resells, median over 644 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 362 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 111 of 200 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3 | -0.06 | 53c | -21.9% | 44 |
The 200 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 200 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Apr 1, 2026, EDT | $645 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 486 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 295 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 15 of 33 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0 | -0.09 | 52c | -28.7% | 44 |
The 33 picks behind Stocks are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 33 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Olympicslast settled Feb 24, 2026, EST | $4,713 | before 23%in play 77%, over 60 Olympics picks with a start of play; typically bought 101 h 25 after the start | 1 dresells, median over 330 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 237 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 28 of 85 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4 | -0.08 | 43c | -35.6% | 44 |
The 85 picks behind Olympics are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 85 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $1,652 | before 9%in play 91%, over 22 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min after the start | 5 h 34resells, median over 84 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 48 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 18 of 29 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4 | -0.12 | 50c | -44.1% | 43 |
The 29 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 14,273 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 29 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 261
- What they are worth now
- $1,338bought for $1,787
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 261, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 83.09 | 57c | 81c | $67 |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 59.88 | 44c | 100c | $60 |
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30.01 | 97c | 100c | $30 |
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30 | 90c | 99c | $30 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30 | 98c | 98c | $29 |
| Will USD/JPY hit 200 (High) in 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30 | 93c | 97c | $29 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30.01 | 89c | 97c | $29 |
| Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 30 | 84c | 97c | $29 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30 | 81c | 97c | $29 |
| Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30.01 | 78c | 96c | $29 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 30.02 | 45c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-24? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 30.01 | 11c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0xfa63…ddf2backed outcome 1 | 30.01 | 10c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-20? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 30.01 | 59c | $0 | Counted |
| Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-14? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 30 | 21c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does: the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table above. 3 never will. TailMyPicks scored those markets, and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar: too small, bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 1 is not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.