TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa547…95eb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NBA, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 61 out of 100; worst Lol at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT4187.8%36 W · 5 L+6.6wins+0.16per pick72cpaid+22.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$95.44
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$100.24
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+62.8%+$115.32
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$57.84
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$81.77
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$43.85
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$41.62
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$48.94
Raptors vs. Bullsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+28%+$19.7
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$77.86
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$78.89
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$57.37
Trail Blazers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$78.92
Magic vs. Heatbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$106.38
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$60.5
Suns vs. Raptorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.73
Celtics vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$100.5
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.4
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$49.05
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$56.02
Knicks vs. Jazzbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$95.75
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$49.48
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$58.92
Pacers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$74.5
Grizzlies vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+49%+$85.48
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT3080%24 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Tweets — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+51%+$30.42
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$44.76
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$53.85
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$55.08
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$174.61
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$735Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$735.02
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$97.29
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$737Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+87.6%+$645.99
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,197Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$401.97
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$10.89
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,179Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$371.16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$782Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$368
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$769Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+56%+$430.37
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$112.08
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+49.2%+$43.24
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$51.64
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.27
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$93.36
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$62.13
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.49
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$52.58
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$51.38
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST2065%13 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+28.2%+$11
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivalsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$39.5
LoL: DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffsbacked T1 Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.7
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivalsbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.5
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-Inbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$37
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$57.8
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+72.4%+$42
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+72.4%+$25.2
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$27
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Play-Inbacked Dplus KIA Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$58.99
LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stagebacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$13
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked Ground Zero Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+37%+$13.5
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$14
LoL: LGD Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$10.4
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+33.3%+$12.5
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+28.2%+$11
LoL: Misa Esports vs S2G Esports (BO3) - TCL Group Bbacked Misa Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.5
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$38
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$32.5
All 20 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT11100%11 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$44.59
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$90.34
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$78.03
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+33%+$86.87
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$72.85
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$74.91
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankeesbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+40.2%+$70
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$79.92
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$143.7
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+31%+$47.36
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$44.33
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$5.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhornsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$98.62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.