Wallet 0xa815…9cbe
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xa815f590e64fa64d417df72c581a32f5ff449cbe
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$191,388 staked over 3,168 qualified picks in 42 categories, 31 of 42 below 50.
Best category
Tennis
$109 staked over 5 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Tennis boardSecond best
Macro Indicators
$1,843 staked over 60 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Macro Indicators boardThird best
Fed Rates
$4,490 staked over 43 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full Fed Rates boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,168 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category42 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Sep 11, 2026, EDT | $109 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 49 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.31100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5 | +0.30 | 10c | +249.7% | 56 |
The 5 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Macro Indicatorslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $1,843 | —no start of play | 21 dto the end, median over 343 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 152 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0795% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 8 of 60 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +4.3 | +0.07 | 8c | +92.1% | 56 |
The 60 picks behind Macro Indicators are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 60 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rateslast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $4,490 | —no start of play | 13 dresells, median over 85 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 48 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0590% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 90% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 12 of 43 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.5 | +0.06 | 6c | +65.7% | 54 |
The 43 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 43 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $30 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 23 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.43101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8 | +0.42 | 8c | +517.1% | 53 |
The 2 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politicslast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $10,753 | —no start of play | 13 dresells, median over 307 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 174 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 65% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 27 of 149 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 149 | 8.7%13 W · 136 L | +3.0 | +0.02 | 7c | +2.5% | 52 |
The 149 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 149 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $407 | —no start of play | 16 dto the end, median over 129 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 42 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 43% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 5 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.6 | +0.03 | 7c | +19.8% | 52 |
The 19 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 19 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Space Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $132 | —no start of play | 9 dresells, median over 14 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | +0.07166% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 166% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3 | +0.04 | 24c | -10% | 51 |
The 7 picks behind Space are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 7 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Commoditieslast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $10,107 | —no start of play | 17 dto the end, median over 272 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 114 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 14% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 48 of 153 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 153 | 7.2%11 W · 142 L | +1.6 | +0.01 | 6c | -10.1% | 51 |
The 153 picks behind Commodities are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 153 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast settled Jun 15, 2026, EDT | $364 | —no start of play | 32 dresells, median over 20 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0295% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2 | +0.02 | 6c | -16.7% | 51 |
The 12 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 12 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle Eastlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $69,224 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 743 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 312 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 124 of 389 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 389 | 6.4%25 W · 364 L | +1.8 | 0.00 | 6c | -19.7% | 50 |
The 389 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 389 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Apr 1, 2026, EDT | $4,652 | —no start of play | 15 dto the end, median over 274 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 83 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 17 of 150 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4 | 0.00 | 5c | -37.2% | 50 |
The 150 picks behind Stocks are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 150 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions League Inactivelast settled Apr 28, 2026, EDT | $73 | —too few: 2 picks | 1 dto the end, median over 15 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 25c | -59.7% | 50 |
The 4 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorantlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $381 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 116 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 7c | -16.5% | 50 |
The 14 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $2,801 | —no start of play | 18 dto the end, median over 117 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 55 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 8 of 38 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -0.1 | 0.00 | 5c | -35.1% | 50 |
The 38 picks behind China Taiwan are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 38 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Earnings Inactivelast settled Oct 15, 2025, EDT | $39 | —no start of play | 14 dto the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0 | -0.05 | 5c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Earnings are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Boxing Inactivelast settled Feb 16, 2026, EST | $49 | —no start of play | 46 dto the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.06 | 6c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Boxing are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $2,276 | —no start of play | 16 dto the end, median over 147 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 63 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 44 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.2 | 0.00 | 7c | -10.7% | 50 |
The 44 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 44 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled May 15, 2026, EDT | $12 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.06 | 6c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politicslast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $15,366 | —no start of play | 30 dto the end, median over 1,791 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 789 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 72 of 344 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 344 | 7%24 W · 320 L | -0.9 | 0.00 | 7c | -17.2% | 50 |
The 344 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 344 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Chess Inactivelast settled Sep 15, 2025, EDT | $12 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.07 | 7c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Chess are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFClast settled Oct 4, 2026, EDT | $67 | —no start of play | 13 dto the end, median over 42 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1 | -0.04 | 4c | -100% | 50 |
The 2 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT | $27 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.09 | 9c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| F1 Inactivelast settled Dec 7, 2025, EST | $436 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1 | -0.05 | 5c | -100% | 50 |
The 2 picks behind F1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast settled Aug 17, 2026, EDT | $93 | —no start of play | 11 dresells, median over 22 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 16 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2 | -0.04 | 4c | -100% | 49 |
The 5 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Token Launcheslast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $5,527 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 448 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 162 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 38 of 180 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 180 | 5%9 W · 171 L | -1.5 | -0.01 | 6c | -32% | 49 |
The 180 picks behind Token Launches are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 180 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $1,123 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 87 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 8 of 40 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -0.5 | -0.01 | 6c | -45.6% | 49 |
The 40 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 40 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $121 | —no start of play | 2 dto the end, median over 52 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3 | -0.05 | 5c | -100% | 49 |
The 5 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Movieslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $4,368 | —no start of play | 15 dresells, median over 285 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 173 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 19 of 103 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 103 | 4.9%5 W · 98 L | -1.2 | -0.01 | 6c | -38.4% | 49 |
The 103 picks behind Movies are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 103 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Venezuelalast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $1,049 | —no start of play | 13 dresells, median over 20 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4 | -0.03 | 3c | -100% | 49 |
The 12 picks behind Venezuela are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 12 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $3,391 | —no start of play | 40 dresells, median over 245 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 138 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 16 of 93 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.2 | -0.01 | 6c | -21.8% | 49 |
The 93 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 93 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketballlast settled Jun 23, 2026, EDT | $1,072 | —no start of play | 43 dresells, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4 | -0.05 | 5c | -100% | 49 |
The 7 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 7 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $273 | —no start of play | 15 dto the end, median over 85 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5 | -0.07 | 7c | -100% | 48 |
The 7 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 7 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Midtermslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $7,289 | —no start of play | 27 dto the end, median over 723 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 319 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 52 of 245 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 245 | 4.9%12 W · 233 L | -4.6 | -0.02 | 7c | -42% | 48 |
The 245 picks behind Us Midterms are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 245 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweetslast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $960 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 93 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 43 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 8 of 29 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.9 | -0.03 | 7c | -58.6% | 48 |
The 29 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 29 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 9, 2026, EDT | $388 | —no start of play | 74 dto the end, median over 95 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 21 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7 | -0.07 | 7c | -100% | 48 |
The 10 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| IPOlast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $3,065 | —no start of play | 46 dresells, median over 84 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 60 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 13 of 45 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.5 | -0.03 | 6c | -75.7% | 48 |
The 45 picks behind IPO are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 45 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weatherlast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $2,192 | —too few: 1 pick | 15 dto the end, median over 223 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 62 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 64 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -2.0 | -0.03 | 6c | -71.5% | 47 |
The 64 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 64 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 4, 2026, EDT | $6,940 | —too few: 2 picks | 7 dto the end, median over 605 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 215 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 39 of 170 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 170 | 4.1%7 W · 163 L | -4.6 | -0.03 | 7c | -51.9% | 47 |
The 170 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 170 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AIlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $18,372 | —no start of play | 16 dto the end, median over 1,631 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 502 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 126 of 455 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 455 | 3.7%17 W · 438 L | -12.0 | -0.03 | 6c | -51.4% | 47 |
The 455 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 455 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukrainelast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $8,278 | —no start of play | 15 dto the end, median over 390 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 146 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 43 of 179 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 179 | 2.8%5 W · 174 L | -5.2 | -0.03 | 6c | -58.1% | 47 |
The 179 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 179 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $2,392 | —no start of play | 17 dto the end, median over 298 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 112 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 38 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.2 | -0.06 | 6c | -100% | 46 |
The 38 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 38 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $848 | —no start of play | 50 dto the end, median over 402 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 81 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 39 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.8 | -0.07 | 7c | -100% | 45 |
The 39 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,168 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 39 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked ; the figures below date from .
This wallet holds more positions than we read. We counted at least 500 running positions and stopped there. So no figure is shown: one side of a hedge could be in the part we did not reach. Wallets this size are almost certainly market makers, not forecasters. The record above is not affected.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.