TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb37a…f1b1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
272
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Commodities, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 62 out of 100; worst Weather at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT10745.8%49 W · 58 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 107 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$23.52
Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$471.58
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$212.87
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$130.31
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,090Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,090.08
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$660.6
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.17
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,743Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$756.99
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,084.53
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+464.7%+$724.02
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$955Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$242.98
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.05
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.1
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$426.91
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.58
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,407Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+154.7%+$2,177.91
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,462Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$703.39
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.93
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$632Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+259.3%+$1,638.06
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+122.4%+$1,505.72
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$212.44
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$131.43
Showing 25 of 107 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT3826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+132.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.55
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$202.4
Argentina to score first vs. Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.65
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$5.78
France vs. England: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$7,237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,236.69
France vs. England: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,079.99
France vs. England: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
France vs. England: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$4,800
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.92
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
England to score first vs. Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.8
Spain to score first vs. Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$77.27
France to score first vs. Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$72.12
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.85
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.57
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.18
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+248.4%+$356.5
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$445
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.5
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+5,782.4%+$982.99
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$1,827
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+93.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Commodities — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$82.61
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$99.97
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$693Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+146.8%+$1,016.9
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,549Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+87.5%+$1,355.25
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.24
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.43
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.31
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,623Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$768.46
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$620
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.86
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+641.7%+$3,751.96
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+433.6%+$503.79
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.28
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$229.64
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+38.7%+$116.12
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.1
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.06
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.85
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$48.1
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$888Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$887.52
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$108.59
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,066Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$320.82
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,339.83
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.35
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.4
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+155.2%+$669
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.71
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$12
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.44
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+920.4%+$949.04
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.95
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.88
All 14 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+166.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+300%+$1,500
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.48
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.12
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+363.9%+$1,195.78
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,038Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$946.87
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+365.7%+$951.68
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+1,191.2%+$1,836.95
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+45.2%+$63.33
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$49.97
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.6
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.99
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+101%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$8,460Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+71%+$6,008.48
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$4,877Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,877.26
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+58.1%+$119.24
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$756.22
Will Trump accuse Russia of election interference by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.9
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,023Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+71%+$1,437.16
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$4,030Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$1,403.75
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$6,226Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$1,645.8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$505.05
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$15.14
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+232.2%+$60.81
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.14
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+184.1%+$631.91
Will Typhoon Dolphin not make Japan landfall?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.91
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.13
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$546Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$545.62
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$18.2
All 10 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Cricket — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+180.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+45.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweetslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+153.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alejandro Garcia Carbajal vs. Javier Barranco Cosano: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,302Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$1,393.71
Madrid Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Moez Echarguibacked Moez Echargui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$736Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+274.4%+$2,020.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,776Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$873.69
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$325.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$715Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$285
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump attend UFC 327?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$135
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$392.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$481
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.