Wallet 0xbca0…9705
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xbca08c1bc204a34f2fddbe47b438b9bd42ac9705
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$13,371,226 staked over 18,407 qualified picks in 13 categories, 6 of 13 below 50.
Best category
NHL
$47,633 staked over 225 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.08 per pick.
See the full NHL boardSecond best
MLB
$8,732,738 staked over 11,037 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full MLB boardThird best
Fifa International
$357,434 staked over 19 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full Fifa International boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 18,407 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category13 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHLlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $47,633 | before 1%in play 99%, over 225 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 09 after the start | 1 h 45to the end, median over 324 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.09110% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 110% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 200 of 225 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 225 | 67.6%152 W · 73 L | +19.3 | +0.09 | 59c | +10.5% | 59 |
The 225 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 225 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $8,732,738 | before 1%in play 99%, over 11,037 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 51 min after the start | 2 h 12to the end, median over 14,119 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 59% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 9,722 of 11,037 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 11,037 | 52.4%5,787 W · 5,250 L | +596.6 | +0.05 | 47c | +3.9% | 56 |
The 11,037 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 11,037 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 9, 2026, EDT | $357,434 | before 89%in play 11%, over 19 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 9 h 42 before the start | 9 h 39to the end, median over 20 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0890% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 90% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 19 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7 | +0.09 | 49c | +17.6% | 54 |
The 19 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 19 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $33,464 | before 0%in play 100%, over 126 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 56 min after the start | 1 h 46to the end, median over 215 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 0% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 99 of 126 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.2 | +0.04 | 32c | -3% | 54 |
The 126 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 126 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $1,055,771 | before 0%in play 100%, over 3,349 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 12 after the start | 2 h 34to the end, median over 3,907 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03152% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 152% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2,576 of 3,349 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3,349 | 51.6%1,728 W · 1,621 L | +76.3 | +0.02 | 49c | +4% | 53 |
The 3,349 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3,349 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $704,952 | before 1%in play 99%, over 860 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 38 after the start | 1 h 45to the end, median over 974 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 753 of 860 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 860 | 50.7%436 W · 424 L | +7.8 | +0.01 | 50c | -1.9% | 51 |
The 860 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 860 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $581,011 | before 3%in play 97%, over 580 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 14 after the start | 1 h 33to the end, median over 666 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 570 of 580 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 580 | 48.1%279 W · 301 L | +1.5 | 0.00 | 48c | -1.1% | 50 |
The 580 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 580 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $1,724,713 | before 0%in play 100%, over 1,999 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 41 min after the start | 3 h 02to the end, median over 2,307 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,450 of 1,999 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,999 | 49.1%982 W · 1,017 L | -2.5 | 0.00 | 49c | -8.8% | 50 |
The 1,999 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,999 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2last settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $18,588 | before 100%in play 0%, over 21 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 h 31 before the start | 12 h 19to the end, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 21 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5 | -0.02 | 31c | -12.1% | 49 |
The 21 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 21 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $35,251 | before 99%in play 1%, over 79 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 h 54 before the start | 12 h 29to the end, median over 80 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 79 of 79 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.6 | -0.06 | 32c | -30.4% | 45 |
The 79 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 79 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorantlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $9,238 | before 100%in play 0%, over 14 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 10 h 31 before the start | 14 h 54to the end, median over 14 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0 | -0.14 | 36c | -45.3% | 44 |
The 14 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $36,973 | before 100%in play 0%, over 68 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 41 before the start | 7 h 47to the end, median over 68 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 68 of 68 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -6.5 | -0.10 | 35c | -19% | 42 |
The 68 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 68 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Jul 4, 2026, EDT | $33,459 | before 100%in play 0%, over 29 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 56 before the start | 7 h 10to the end, median over 37 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 30 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.9 | -0.13 | 43c | -29.6% | 42 |
The 30 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 18,407 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 30 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 17
- What they are worth now
- $1,758bought for $2,115
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 48worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 17, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage (opens in a new tab)backed Nemiga | 3,008 | 39c | 40c | $1,188 |
| Market 0xbb36…5903backed outcome 1 | 253.45 | 45c | 84c | $213 |
| Market 0x9c11…cb21backed outcome 0 | 370 | 48c | 37c | $137 |
| Market 0xa10d…7d06backed outcome 1 | 73 | 81c | 85c | $62 |
| Market 0xa605…ced2backed outcome 0 | 270.83 | 22c | 11c | $28 |
| Market 0xa6d3…e8f0backed outcome 0 | 435.22 | 30c | 7c | $28 |
| Market 0x95cc…3b67backed outcome 0 | 298.25 | 39c | 7c | $21 |
| Market 0x5d3c…42c7backed outcome 0 | 200 | 16c | 7c | $14 |
| Market 0x3a5c…9066backed outcome 0 | 41 | 30c | 32c | $13 |
| Market 0x1eab…196bbacked outcome 0 | 231 | 19c | 5c | $12 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 48. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (opens in a new tab)backed Tampa Bay Rays · settled | 13,514 | 21c | $0 | Counted |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (opens in a new tab)backed Detroit Tigers · settled | 5,151 | 28c | $0 | Counted |
| Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Toronto Tempo · settled | 4,008 | 55c | $0 | Counted |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul (opens in a new tab)backed Tommy Paul · settled | 2,689 | 62c | $0 | Counted |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over · settled | 2,260 | 37c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 5 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.