Wallet 0xbd3a…91fd
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xbd3a01ef18c402d09b5e1bcdd63c43bd52ad91fd
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$362,337 staked over 3,355 qualified picks in 23 categories, 10 of 23 below 50.
Best category
Premier League
$2,147 staked over 15 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.10 per pick.
See the full Premier League boardSecond best
Champions League
$2,660 staked over 23 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.08 per pick.
See the full Champions League boardThird best
Other European Leagues
$4,906 staked over 42 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.08 per pick.
See the full Other European Leagues boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,355 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category23 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $2,147 | before 7%in play 93%, over 15 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 29 after the start | 2 h 11to the end, median over 19 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2385% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 85% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 15 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1 | +0.28 | 59c | +45.4% | 61 |
The 15 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 15 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $2,660 | before 0%in play 100%, over 23 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 22 after the start | 1 h 28to the end, median over 29 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1694% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 23 of 23 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9 | +0.17 | 53c | +43.8% | 59 |
The 23 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 23 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $4,906 | before 5%in play 95%, over 42 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 13 after the start | 3 h 30to the end, median over 58 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12102% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 102% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 37 of 42 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.1 | +0.12 | 50c | +17.2% | 58 |
The 42 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 42 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 7, 2026, EDT | $12,933 | before 0%in play 100%, over 94 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 14 after the start | 2 h 27to the end, median over 135 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08109% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 109% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 91 of 94 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +6.6 | +0.07 | 48c | +9.4% | 56 |
The 94 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 94 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $36,568 | before 11%in play 89%, over 294 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 19 after the start | 2 h 28to the end, median over 375 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0486% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 86% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 284 of 294 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 294 | 54.4%160 W · 134 L | +14.2 | +0.05 | 50c | +12.3% | 55 |
The 294 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 294 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1last settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $1,050 | before 0%in play 100%, over 10 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 29 after the start | 1 h 54to the end, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1282% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 82% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4 | +0.14 | 56c | +14.4% | 55 |
The 10 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $15,077 | before 0%in play 100%, over 123 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 49 min after the start | 3 h 28to the end, median over 166 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.04104% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 104% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 122 of 123 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +5.3 | +0.04 | 51c | -0.6% | 54 |
The 123 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 123 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $1,958 | before 6%in play 94%, over 18 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 07 after the start | 3 h 04to the end, median over 29 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.04out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 62% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 17 of 18 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3 | +0.07 | 48c | +14.8% | 53 |
The 18 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 18 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Mar 23, 2026, EDT | $674 | —too few: 6 picks | 3 h 49to the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06113% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 113% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3 | +0.05 | 28c | -34.6% | 51 |
The 6 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $3,576 | before 9%in play 91%, over 32 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 02 after the start | 2 h 20to the end, median over 55 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02158% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 158% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 28 of 32 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.4 | +0.01 | 52c | +25.5% | 51 |
The 32 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 32 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $42,260 | before 40%in play 60%, over 491 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 15 min after the start | 2 h 41to the end, median over 723 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 450 of 491 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 491 | 47.7%234 W · 257 L | +2.8 | +0.01 | 47c | +2% | 51 |
The 491 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 491 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $67,731 | before 23%in play 77%, over 634 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 51 min after the start | 3 h 24to the end, median over 874 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 614 of 638 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 638 | 46.4%296 W · 342 L | +2.5 | 0.00 | 46c | +0.9% | 50 |
The 638 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 638 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Aug 18, 2026, EDT | $120,821 | before 9%in play 91%, over 1,016 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 00 after the start | 3 h 20to the end, median over 1,771 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 14 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 898 of 1,019 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,019 | 46.8%477 W · 542 L | +1.6 | 0.00 | 47c | +2.3% | 50 |
The 1,019 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,019 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Euroleaguelast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $774 | before 10%in play 90%, over 10 Euroleague picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 09 after the start | 2 h 47to the end, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 10 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 30c | -29.9% | 50 |
The 10 picks behind Euroleague are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $297 | —too few: 3 picks | 50 minto the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1 | -0.03 | 36c | -33.1% | 50 |
The 3 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $2,450 | before 0%in play 100%, over 22 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 57 min after the start | 2 h 26to the end, median over 29 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 22 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4 | -0.02 | 52c | -5.5% | 49 |
The 22 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 22 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $9,133 | before 0%in play 100%, over 94 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 45 min after the start | 3 h 24to the end, median over 166 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 88 of 94 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.0 | -0.01 | 47c | -6.1% | 49 |
The 94 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 94 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorantlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $3,731 | before 23%in play 77%, over 35 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 23 min after the start | 3 h 00to the end, median over 58 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 33 of 35 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.6 | -0.02 | 56c | -13.6% | 49 |
The 35 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 35 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Australian A Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $2,499 | before 0%in play 100%, over 19 Australian A League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 10 after the start | 3 h 29to the end, median over 23 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 19 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8 | -0.04 | 46c | -21% | 48 |
The 19 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 19 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie Alast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $1,498 | before 0%in play 100%, over 14 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 12 after the start | 1 h 45to the end, median over 17 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3 | -0.09 | 52c | -22.4% | 46 |
The 14 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHLlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $9,467 | before 2%in play 98%, over 128 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 21 after the start | 2 h 17to the end, median over 195 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 109 of 128 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | -6.5 | -0.05 | 47c | -13.4% | 45 |
The 128 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 128 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLB Inactivelast settled Aug 29, 2026, EDT | $6,617 | before 32%in play 68%, over 57 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 9 min after the start | 2 h 07to the end, median over 113 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 36 of 57 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.8 | -0.07 | 56c | -6.7% | 45 |
The 57 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 57 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $13,508 | before 5%in play 95%, over 168 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 50 min after the start | 2 h 01to the end, median over 251 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 157 of 168 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -9.4 | -0.06 | 42c | -23.7% | 45 |
The 168 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 3,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 168 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 0
- What they are worth now
- $0bought for $0
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 47worth $0
This wallet holds nothing on a market that is still running. Everything below is settled and waiting to be cashed.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 47. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton (opens in a new tab)backed Ben Shelton · settled | 585.67 | 19c | $0 | Counted |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner (opens in a new tab)backed Dplus KIA · settled | 481.58 | 33c | $0 | Counted |
| Parma: Lisa Pigato vs Lucia Bronzetti (opens in a new tab)backed Lisa Pigato · settled | 454.11 | 9c | $0 | Counted |
| Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Lloyd Harris (opens in a new tab)backed Pierre-Hugues Herbert · settled | 419.91 | 51c | $0 | Counted |
| Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Altmaier · settled | 414.88 | 24c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 5 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.