TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc117…6dda

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst Asian League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Mls Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.65
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.6
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.6
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.78
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$155.99
Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$75.83
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.3
Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
All 11 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.91
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.79
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.15
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$45.22
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.8
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.2
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$34.3
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+117.9%+$54.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$68.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$14.09
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.