Wallet 0xc249…8a61
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xc2494b32d65dea3a3a80712589d10bc5733f8a61
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$1,094,470 staked over 3,462 qualified picks in 17 categories, 7 of 17 below 50.
Best category
La Liga
$40,038 staked over 120 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.10 per pick.
See the full La Liga boardSecond best
College Football
$6,582 staked over 38 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.07 per pick.
See the full College Football boardThird best
Crypto Milestones
$11,689 staked over 17 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.07 per pick.
See the full Crypto Milestones boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,462 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category17 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Ligalast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $40,038 | before 100%in play 0%, over 120 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 66 h 42 before the start | 4 dto the end, median over 188 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1194% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 52 of 120 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 120 | 66.7%80 W · 40 L | +14.5 | +0.12 | 55c | +28% | 61 |
The 120 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 120 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $6,582 | before 100%in play 0%, over 38 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 24 h 34 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 49 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1195% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 8 of 38 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.5 | +0.12 | 46c | +44.1% | 58 |
The 38 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 38 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast settled May 1, 2026, EDT | $11,689 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 32 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.18107% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 107% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8 | +0.16 | 60c | +28.2% | 57 |
The 17 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 17 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Apr 3, 2026, EDT | $545 | —too few: 3 picks | 5 dto the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.5493% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 93% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7 | +0.58 | 42c | +162.1% | 57 |
The 3 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $13,063 | before 100%in play 0%, over 49 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 167 h 22 before the start | 7 dto the end, median over 89 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0887% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 87% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 23 of 49 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.4 | +0.09 | 60c | +14.6% | 57 |
The 49 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 49 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $274,409 | before >99%in play <1%, over 909 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 45 before the start | 11 h 00to the end, median over 1,197 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0478% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 78% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 309 of 909 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 909 | 48.7%443 W · 466 L | +51.3 | +0.06 | 43c | +15.9% | 56 |
The 909 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 909 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $238,731 | before 100%in play 0%, over 658 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 h 15 before the start | 10 h 30to the end, median over 824 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0584% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 84% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 390 of 659 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 659 | 53%349 W · 310 L | +36.2 | +0.05 | 47c | +14% | 56 |
The 659 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 659 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennislast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $227,466 | before >99%in play <1%, over 872 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 h 40 before the start | 12 h 03to the end, median over 1,093 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0480% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 80% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 345 of 872 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 872 | 45.2%394 W · 478 L | +40.3 | +0.05 | 41c | +13.6% | 55 |
The 872 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 872 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $43,697 | before 100%in play 0%, over 154 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 90 h 31 before the start | 4 dto the end, median over 198 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0388% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 88% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 58 of 154 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +5.4 | +0.04 | 46c | +6.9% | 53 |
The 154 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 154 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $49,411 | before 100%in play 0%, over 122 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 13 h 25 before the start | 19 h 17to the end, median over 160 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 0% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 72 of 122 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +1.7 | +0.01 | 45c | +6.5% | 51 |
The 122 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 122 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $55,411 | before 100%in play 0%, over 177 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 h 44 before the start | 13 h 50to the end, median over 243 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 89 of 177 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 177 | 45.8%81 W · 96 L | -0.6 | 0.00 | 46c | +0.7% | 50 |
The 177 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 177 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT | $73,169 | before 100%in play 0%, over 135 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 34 h 13 before the start | 5 dto the end, median over 282 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 68 of 135 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -3.6 | -0.03 | 52c | -7.8% | 47 |
The 135 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 135 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $16,402 | before 100%in play 0%, over 52 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 h 20 before the start | 3 dto the end, median over 77 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 26 of 52 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8 | -0.03 | 52c | -10.8% | 47 |
The 52 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 52 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie Alast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $8,927 | before 97%in play 3%, over 37 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 23 h 28 before the start | 3 dto the end, median over 66 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 17 of 37 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2 | -0.09 | 52c | -20.9% | 44 |
The 37 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 37 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $16,509 | before 100%in play 0%, over 59 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 h 51 before the start | 5 dto the end, median over 100 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 29 of 59 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -4.3 | -0.07 | 55c | -11.4% | 44 |
The 59 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 59 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesligalast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $13,308 | before 100%in play 0%, over 45 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 h 49 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 62 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 26 of 45 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.8 | -0.09 | 49c | -6.6% | 44 |
The 45 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 45 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 14, 2026, EDT | $5,112 | before 100%in play 0%, over 14 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 9 h 03 before the start | 13 h 54to the end, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.18no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4 | -0.17 | 53c | -29.9% | 43 |
The 14 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,462 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 61
- What they are worth now
- $6,347bought for $5,915
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 0worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 61, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 (opens in a new tab)backed No | 1,110 | 49c | 51c | $560 |
| Rams vs. Raiders (opens in a new tab)backed Rams | 860.82 | 66c | 61c | $521 |
| Spread: Rams (-3.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Rams | 1,003 | 44c | 47c | $466 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 510.84 | 81c | 87c | $442 |
| FC Dallas vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 532.27 | 79c | 83c | $442 |
| Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Los Angeles Galaxy 1st Half O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 390 | 85c | 91c | $355 |
| Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 382.46 | 74c | 81c | $308 |
| 1H Spread: Texans (-5.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Giants | 656.93 | 41c | 47c | $305 |
| Bears vs. Seahawks (opens in a new tab)backed Seahawks | 447.13 | 52c | 58c | $259 |
| FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 12.5 Total Corners (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 319.21 | 62c | 70c | $222 |
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.