Wallet 0xc518…2594
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xc5187cb669690150643ba2f9aac6b7d98d212594
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 2,554
- What they are worth now
- $7,499
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $127,168
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 2,554, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x21d9…52b0backed outcome 1 | 126.02shares | 84c | 97c | $122 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?backed Yes | 128.78shares | 50c | 88c | $113 |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?backed Yes | 106.33shares | 50c | 95c | $101 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?backed No | 95.87shares | 100c | 100c | $96 |
| Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?backed Yes | 99.43shares | 29c | 95c | $94 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?backed No | 90.18shares | 100c | 99c | $89 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?backed Yes | 133.54shares | 50c | 65c | $86 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?backed Yes | 150shares | 50c | 51c | $77 |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?backed Yes | 142shares | 50c | 52c | $73 |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?backed Yes | 77.63shares | 36c | 91c | $70 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · resolved | 1,244shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 1,037shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid?backed No · resolved | 840.18shares | 24c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0xbf5e…f40dbacked outcome 0 | 386.99shares | 50c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will Denmark win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?backed Yes · resolved | 358.94shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does — the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table below. 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 1 is not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 3,090
- Categories scored
- 43
- Categories below 50
- 19
Best Category: CS2, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).
Best Category CS2 at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 3,090 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| AIlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Tennislast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Chesslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +180.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Us Politicslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| La Ligalast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.