Wallet 0xc809…5f4e
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xc8090a29a6e5c0b25082be394e6c37132e335f4e
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 3
- What they are worth now
- $48
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 23
bought for $51
worth $0
Its 3 running positions
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28?backed Yes | 28.17shares | 71c | 71c | $20 |
| Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-08-29?backed Yes | 50shares | 40c | 35c | $17 |
| Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-08-28?backed Yes | 19.39shares | 59c | 57c | $11 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 23. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-08-13?backed Yes · resolved | 399.98shares | 5c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x0364…b49dbacked outcome 0 | 74.08shares | 27c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x0335…6f0bbacked outcome 0 | 66.67shares | 30c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x75a9…bcaebacked outcome 0 | 64.52shares | 31c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x7fcd…6803backed outcome 0 | 55.56shares | 36c | $0 | Not ingested |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does — the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table below. 4 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 133
- Categories scored
- 9
- Categories below 50
- 6
Best Category: La Liga, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).
Best Category La Liga at 60 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 39.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Ligalast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
La Liga — the 29 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other European Leagues — the 24 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Serie Alast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Serie A — the 19 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bundesligalast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bundesliga — the 18 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Europa Conference League — the 16 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ligue 1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ligue 1 — the 10 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 11, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 29cpaid | +251%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| MLBlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.