Wallet 0xcb4c…7b09
Rebuilt .
Best in MLB68 qualified picks$1,500 staked10 of 16 categories below 50first seen Sep 1, 2026, EDT
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xcb4ca20e90dc83f60a1b2ccf6609c6a650907b09
Score by category
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.16 categories, best first- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 2
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 100% 2 W · 0 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- +1.0
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- +0.50
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 50c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- +106.7%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $25
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 2 h 00resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- +0.50100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Sep 27, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$106.7 tailing 2 MLB picks (2 W · 0 L) at $50 each: +106.7% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified MLB picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
MLB picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026, EDT | Will Cristopher Sánchez lead MLB in pitcher wins for the 2026 season? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 59c | $12 | +69.5% | +$8.2 |
| Sep 27, 2026, EDT | Will Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? | Yes | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 41c | $13 | +143.9% | +$18.83 |
All 2 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 1
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 100% 1 W · 0 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- +0.5
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- +0.53
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 48c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- +110.5%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $48
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 6 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- +0.53100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 1, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$55.26 tailing 1 Ukraine pick (1 W · 0 L) at $50 each: +110.5% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Ukraine picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Ukraine picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026, EDT | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | Yes | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 48c | $48 | +110.5% | +$52.5 |
All 1 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 3
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 66.7% 2 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- +0.3
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- +0.09
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 58c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- +0.8%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $84
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 5 h 33resells, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- +0.14157% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 157% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Nov 1, 2026, EST
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$1.14 tailing 3 Us Midterms picks (2 W · 1 L) at $50 each: +0.8% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Us Midterms picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Us Midterms picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, EST | Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 77c | $39 | +29.9% | +$11.5 |
| Oct 31, 2026, EDT | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? | Yes | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 38c | $34 | -100% | -$33.77 |
| Oct 11, 2026, EDT | Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 9? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 58c | $12 | +72.4% | +$8.4 |
All 3 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 1
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 100% 1 W · 0 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- +0.2
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- +0.21
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 79c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- +26.6%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $40
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 1 h 50resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- +0.53254% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 254% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 6, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$13.29 tailing 1 Token Launches pick (1 W · 0 L) at $50 each: +26.6% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Token Launches picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Token Launches picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026, EDT | Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 79c | $40 | +26.6% | +$10.5 |
All 1 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 2
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 50% 1 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- +0.2
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- +0.10
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 40c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -24.2%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $49
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 1 h 29resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- +0.10101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Sep 30, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$24.24 tailing 2 China Taiwan picks (1 W · 1 L) at $50 each: -24.2% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified China Taiwan picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
China Taiwan picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026, EDT | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 15c | $16 | -100% | -$15.65 |
| Sep 26, 2026, EDT | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 66c | $33 | +51.5% | +$17 |
All 2 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 2
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 50% 1 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- +0.2
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- +0.09
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 42c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- +42.9%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $62
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 8 dresells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- +0.12141% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 141% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Nov 1, 2026, EST
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$42.86 tailing 2 IPO picks (1 W · 1 L) at $50 each: +42.9% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified IPO picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
IPO picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, EST | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | Yes | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 48c | $48 | -100% | -$48 |
| Oct 16, 2026, EDT | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 35c | $14 | +185.7% | +$26 |
All 2 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 2
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 50% 1 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -0.1
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.04
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 54c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -33.3%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $31
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 4 h 00resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 28, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$33.33 tailing 2 Fed Rates picks (1 W · 1 L) at $50 each: -33.3% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Fed Rates picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Fed Rates picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026, EDT | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 75c | $15 | +33.3% | +$5 |
| Oct 27, 2026, EDT | No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? | Hike 25 bps | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 32c | $16 | -100% | -$16 |
All 2 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 7
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 57.1% 4 W · 3 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -0.1
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.01
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 59c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- +0.8%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $157
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 1 h 30resells, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Sep 28, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$2.78 tailing 7 Music picks (4 W · 3 L) at $50 each: +0.8% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Music picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Music picks
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 2
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 50% 1 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -0.2
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.09
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 59c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -3.8%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $43
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 2 h 00resells, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Sep 22, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$3.85 tailing 2 Middle East picks (1 W · 1 L) at $50 each: -3.8% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Middle East picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Middle East picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026, EDT | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 65c | $33 | -100% | -$32.5 |
| Sep 16, 2026, EDT | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026? | Yes | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 52c | $10 | +92.3% | +$9.6 |
All 2 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 2
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 50% 1 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -0.2
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.10
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 60c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -21.9%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $24
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 3 h 52resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Sep 9, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$21.88 tailing 2 Tennis picks (1 W · 1 L) at $50 each: -21.9% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Tennis picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Tennis picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026, EDT | Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 64c | $13 | +56.3% | +$7.2 |
| Sep 6, 2026, EDT | Will Jessica Pegula advance to the Quarterfinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 US Open? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 55c | $11 | -100% | -$11 |
All 2 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 2
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 50% 1 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -0.3
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.15
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 65c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -36.7%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $26
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 2 h 00resells, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 17, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$36.71 tailing 2 Valorant picks (1 W · 1 L) at $50 each: -36.7% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Valorant picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Valorant picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026, EDT | Will valyn have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026? | No | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 79c | $16 | +26.6% | +$4.2 |
| Oct 17, 2026, EDT | Will mada have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026? | Yes | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 50c | $10 | -100% | -$10 |
All 2 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 1
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 0% 0 W · 1 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -0.3
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.30
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 30c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -100%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $15
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 2 h 00resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.29no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Sep 18, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$50 tailing 1 Commodities pick (0 W · 1 L) at $50 each: -100% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Commodities picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Commodities picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026, EDT | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? | Yes | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 30c | $15 | -100% | -$15 |
All 1 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 3
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 33.3% 1 W · 2 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -0.6
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.21
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 55c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -53.7%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $42
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 6 h 44resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.20no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 6, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$80.56 tailing 3 Movies picks (1 W · 2 L) at $50 each: -53.7% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Movies picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Movies picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026, EDT | Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 31c | $16 | -100% | -$15.5 |
| Sep 29, 2026, EDT | Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 72c | $14 | +38.9% | +$5.6 |
| Sep 22, 2026, EDT | Will "The Whisper Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 61c | $12 | -100% | -$12.2 |
All 3 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 23
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 43.5% 10 W · 13 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -2.4
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.11
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 54c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -16.9%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $525
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 2 h 00resells, median over 35 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 35 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 15 of 23 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 31, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$194.83 tailing 23 World Politics picks (10 W · 13 L) at $50 each: -16.9% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified World Politics picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
World Politics picks
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 6
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 16.7% 1 W · 5 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -1.9
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.32
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 49c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -71.3%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $120
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —too few: 1 pick
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 2 h 01resells, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.30no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 12, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$213.79 tailing 6 Weather picks (1 W · 5 L) at $50 each: -71.3% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Weather picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Weather picks
| Settled | Market | Position | Result | Entry | Size | Return | P/L held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026, EDT | Will Nolo peak at Category 4? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 50c | $10 | -100% | -$10 |
| Oct 7, 2026, EDT | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 6? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 32c | $33 | -100% | -$33.28 |
| Oct 1, 2026, EDT | Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 34c | $12 | -100% | -$11.97 |
| Oct 1, 2026, EDT | Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September? | No | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 77c | $15 | -100% | -$15.4 |
| Oct 1, 2026, EDT | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | Yes | Won (open this pick on its own page) | 58c | $29 | +72.4% | +$21 |
| Sep 3, 2026, EDT | What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1) | Yes | Lost (open this pick on its own page) | 40c | $20 | -100% | -$20 |
All 6 picks, newest first. | |||||||
- Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- 9
- Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- 33.3% 3 W · 6 L
- vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- -2.4
- Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- -0.27
- Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- 60c
- ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- -32.3%
- StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- $212
- When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- —no start of play
- HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- 2 h 00resells, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled
- At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- -0.25no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
- Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Oct 31, 2026, EDT
If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$145.32 tailing 9 AI picks (3 W · 6 L) at $50 each: -32.3% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified AI picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
AI picks
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 0
- What they are worth now
- $0bought for $0
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 1worth $0
This wallet holds nothing on a market that is still running. Everything below is settled and waiting to be cashed.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 1 largest of 1. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | PositionHow many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column. | PaidPolymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions. | WorthWhat those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it. | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x16c7…9649backed outcome 1 | 30 | 18c | $0 | Not read yet |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 is not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
About this page
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry figures of each category tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why this page scores each category on its own rather than as one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.