Wallet 0xce9d…3c05
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xce9d204439cfcc2affaf0ce4de449e5750c23c05
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
TailMyPicks does not watch what 0xce9d…3c05 is holding. Live positions are read for the strongest fifty wallets in each category, and this one is not among them — so this is we have not looked, not there is nothing there. Its record below is unaffected: that is rebuilt from resolved markets and does not depend on this. You can see what the wallets we do watch are buying on the tail feed.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 4,506
- Categories scored
- 37
- Categories below 50
- 26
Best Category: Token Launches, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).
Best Category Token Launches at 65 out of 100; worst Champions League at 38.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 4,506 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT | 228 | 43.9%100 W · 128 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT | 170 | 39.4%67 W · 103 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Mls Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 52cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Weather Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.