Wallet 0xcf6c…7e66
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xcf6c5492124794394dd9eac46498a8babbe47e66
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 9
- What they are worth now
- $44,940
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 49
bought for $53,565
worth $0
Its 9 running positions
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open?backed No | 31,932shares | 100c | 100c | $31,916 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No | 25,000shares | 71c | 39c | $9,625 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?backed Yes | 10,000shares | 12c | 13c | $1,295 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No | 1,755shares | 78c | 46c | $799 |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?backed Yes | 729.66shares | 99c | 98c | $713 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No | 535.06shares | 83c | 81c | $431 |
| Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?backed Yes | 2,233shares | 8c | 6c | $124 |
| Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?backed No | 29.52shares | 92c | 94c | $28 |
| Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?backed Yes | 143.49shares | 6c | 7c | $11 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 49. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?backed No · resolved | 95,614shares | 72c | $0 | Never scored |
| Celtics vs. Heatbacked Heat · resolved | 29,960shares | 75c | $0 | Counted |
| Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · resolved | 26,394shares | 62c | $0 | Counted |
| Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Tallon Griekspoor · resolved | 23,435shares | 20c | $0 | Counted |
| RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5backed Under · resolved | 23,100shares | 60c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 4 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 1 never will: TailMyPicks scored that market and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 2,959
- Categories scored
- 34
- Categories below 50
- 14
Best Category: MLB, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).
Best Category MLB at 65 out of 100; worst Serie A at 43.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,959 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| NFLlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +16.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| Valorantlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Mls Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.