TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcf95…7865

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
2,998
Categories scored
53
Categories below 50
24

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 60 out of 100; worst Chess at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.

The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,998 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT52619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT34726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT19937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT19328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT18323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT16632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT15324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT11723.9%28 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT7540%30 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT7226.4%19 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST6832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT6428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+70.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT6311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5657.1%32 W · 24 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT4936.7%18 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT4621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT3935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+34.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST2516%4 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+53.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT2138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT2020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+133.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.