Weather · one pick
Wallet 0xd7f0…8943 got this wrong.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xd7f0cc5b1e2a8c793fc261bb40a3b70ecf558943/m/0xca905d1627277c4a6c4bac722d3a301c8e6e65f93e8d01bc0a8242fffb2e94cd
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Yesat 1c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- No won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 2,571 shares$14 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- -$14.25-100% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Weather record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd7f0…8943in Weather | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Weather and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market1 wallet holds a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Weather record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.