Wallet 0xe040…824f
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xe040ffe586e21cb49449e8daf19b1cdff87a824f
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 46
- What they are worth now
- $1
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $106
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 46, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?backed Yes | 3.07shares | 2c | 8c | $0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?backed Yes | 30shares | 3c | 0c | $0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?backed Yes | 5.85shares | 0c | 2c | $0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?backed Yes | 30shares | 3c | 0c | $0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next?backed Yes | 8.36shares | 3c | 1c | $0 |
| Market 0xa872…847ebacked outcome 0 | 10shares | 3c | 1c | $0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?backed Yes | 30shares | 3c | 0c | $0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?backed Yes | 30shares | 3c | 0c | $0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next?backed Yes | 30shares | 3c | 0c | $0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?backed Yes | 30shares | 3c | 0c | $0 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 2,714shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0x5829…1a35backed outcome 0 | 1,204shares | 50c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 29?backed Yes · resolved | 1,033shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on July 28?backed Yes · resolved | 635.42shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0xc0f8…747ebacked outcome 0 | 541.25shares | 50c | $0 | Not ingested |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 2 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 4,839
- Categories scored
- 23
- Categories below 50
- 8
Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).
Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Other European Leagues at 47.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 4,839 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Us Politicslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.