TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

0xe18a…fd87

Rebuilt .

Qualified picks
2,280
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 58 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.

The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,280 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT53134.5%183 W · 348 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesligalast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT24050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
La Ligalast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT22335%78 W · 145 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Serie Alast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT22237.4%83 W · 139 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT20138.3%77 W · 124 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT19224.5%47 W · 145 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT12336.6%45 W · 78 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT11735.9%42 W · 75 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT11438.6%44 W · 70 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Mlslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT10243.1%44 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT8844.3%39 W · 49 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST6931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT4928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.