Wallet 0xe40a…e4a2
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xe40aaa5ce1dac0b7dc24c9d0284f27e17c3fe4a2
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$666,148 staked over 4,154 qualified picks in 28 categories, 9 of 28 below 50.
Best category
China Taiwan
$1,837 staked over 10 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full China Taiwan boardSecond best
MLB
$572 staked over 17 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full MLB boardThird best
IPO
$410 staked over 9 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full IPO boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 4,154 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category28 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $1,837 | —no start of play | 52 dto the end, median over 63 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1992% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1 | +0.21 | 49c | +42.5% | 57 |
The 10 picks behind China Taiwan are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $572 | —too few: 1 pick | 45 dto the end, median over 213 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1185% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 85% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2 | +0.13 | 63c | +30% | 56 |
The 17 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 17 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| IPOlast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $410 | —no start of play | 21 dto the end, median over 37 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1377% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 77% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5 | +0.16 | 61c | +20.3% | 55 |
The 9 picks behind IPO are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $47,976 | —no start of play | 34 dto the end, median over 23 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1182% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 82% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4 | +0.14 | 56c | +38.3% | 54 |
The 10 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFClast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $50 | —no start of play | 13 dto the end, median over 34 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.26118% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 118% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9 | +0.22 | 53c | +7.6% | 53 |
The 4 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT | $1,383 | —no start of play | 50 dto the end, median over 107 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1188% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 88% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0 | +0.12 | 38c | +0.3% | 53 |
The 8 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $646 | —no start of play | 36 dto the end, median over 57 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1299% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0 | +0.12 | 50c | -14.7% | 53 |
The 8 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle Eastlast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $2,867 | —no start of play | 44 dto the end, median over 52 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08111% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 111% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0 | +0.07 | 54c | +39.9% | 53 |
The 13 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorant Inactivelast settled Sep 6, 2026, EDT | $143 | —no start of play | 13 dto the end, median over 17 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.14100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7 | +0.14 | 66c | +22.5% | 53 |
The 5 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lol Inactivelast settled Oct 10, 2026, EDT | $1,555 | —no start of play | 23 dto the end, median over 97 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 10% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 12 of 23 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.0 | +0.04 | 61c | +10.6% | 52 |
The 23 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 23 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Aug 24, 2026, EDT | $7,815 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 31 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1389% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 89% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6 | +0.15 | 60c | +5.8% | 52 |
The 4 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politicslast settled Oct 9, 2026, EDT | $85 | —no start of play | 57 dto the end, median over 27 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.14100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4 | +0.14 | 53c | -11.6% | 52 |
The 3 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politicslast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $86,625 | —no start of play | 42 dto the end, median over 2,620 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 28% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 220 of 536 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 536 | 59.9%321 W · 215 L | +7.9 | +0.01 | 58c | +3.3% | 52 |
The 536 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 536 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweetslast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $56,523 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 946 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 76 of 166 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +2.1 | +0.01 | 57c | -6.3% | 51 |
The 166 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 166 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast settled Sep 11, 2026, EDT | $1,976 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 154 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 16 of 24 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5 | +0.02 | 48c | -18.7% | 51 |
The 24 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 24 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Commodities Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $2,938 | —no start of play | 12 dto the end, median over 57 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 11 of 18 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3 | +0.02 | 59c | -9.6% | 51 |
The 18 picks behind Commodities are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 18 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Sep 13, 2026, EDT | $2,866 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 111 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 6 of 11 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2 | +0.02 | 62c | -3.9% | 51 |
The 11 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 11 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Midterms Inactivelast settled Sep 24, 2026, EDT | $40,709 | —no start of play | 12 dto the end, median over 342 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 45 of 89 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +0.5 | +0.01 | 48c | -5.6% | 51 |
The 89 picks behind Us Midterms are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 89 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT | $93 | —no start of play | 11 dto the end, median over 41 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1 | +0.02 | 65c | -0.9% | 50 |
The 6 picks behind Stocks are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast settled Aug 25, 2026, EDT | $333 | —no start of play | 20 dto the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.14 | 14c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Chesslast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $191 | —no start of play | 22 dto the end, median over 40 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2 | -0.03 | 70c | -12.5% | 49 |
The 6 picks behind Chess are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Sep 25, 2026, EDT | $12,567 | —no start of play | 40 dto the end, median over 156 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4 | -0.04 | 48c | -36.5% | 49 |
The 9 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Movieslast settled Oct 2, 2026, EDT | $23,114 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 189 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 24 of 52 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.5 | -0.03 | 51c | -21% | 48 |
The 52 picks behind Movies are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 52 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weather Inactivelast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT | $353,762 | before 85%in play 15%, over 2,929 Weather picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 h 53 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 13,259 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,382 of 2,966 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,966 | 55.5%1,646 W · 1,320 L | -59.7 | -0.02 | 58c | -11.7% | 48 |
The 2,966 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,966 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Aug 31, 2026, EDT | $12 | —no start of play | 13 dto the end, median over 50 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.72no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7 | -0.72 | 72c | -100% | 47 |
The 1 picks behind Golf are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast settled Sep 6, 2026, EDT | $1,384 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 51 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.34no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0 | -0.34 | 67c | -56% | 46 |
The 3 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Macro Indicatorslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $5,437 | —no start of play | 27 dto the end, median over 239 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 24 of 55 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.9 | -0.05 | 60c | -17.4% | 46 |
The 55 picks behind Macro Indicators are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 55 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AI Inactivelast settled Oct 2, 2026, EDT | $12,280 | —no start of play | 26 dto the end, median over 898 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 50 of 97 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -5.0 | -0.05 | 48c | -27.2% | 45 |
The 97 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 4,154 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 97 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 12
- What they are worth now
- $42bought for $923
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 0worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 12, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x0729…003abacked outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0x0930…1367backed outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0x3131…c89cbacked outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0x453e…22afbacked outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0x461c…3a39backed outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0x55f6…d411backed outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0x5999…4608backed outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0x7025…1ebbbacked outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0xa741…d23abacked outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
| Market 0xd04e…01e0backed outcome 0 | 7,053 | 1c | 0c | $4 |
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.