TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe724…33c6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
133
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT9728.9%28 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 97 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+606.9%+$78.47
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.4
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.2
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$21.63
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+317%+$171.58
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.42
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.9
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+236%+$71.76
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$85
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.88
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.07
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+135.4%+$36.56
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.89
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+210%+$102.66
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.37
Showing 25 of 97 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2580%20 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.1
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$12.9
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.78
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$10.38
Raptors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.56
Celtics vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$15.15
Warriors vs. Jazzbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Celtics vs. Cavaliersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
Clippers vs. Grizzliesbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+41%+$6.16
Pacers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+25%+$2.5
Pelicans vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+51.5%+$7.73
Raptors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+47.1%+$6.4
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzliesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+33.3%+$10
Thunder vs. Knicksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+31.6%+$9.6
Thunder vs. Bullsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+29.9%+$6.9
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$7.6
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47.1%+$4.8
All 25 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+200.1%+$29.61
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Bluesbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+38.9%+$16.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.