TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf0d5…c665

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Weather at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT4057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$375.43
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$735Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$231.19
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$12.39
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.71
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$47.57
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23,417Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+87.7%+$20,536.71
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,142Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$642.48
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,462Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$1,739.17
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,900Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+79.2%+$3,879.3
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$9,861Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$5,160.8
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$7,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,349.58
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21,145Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$8,834.64
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$6,658Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,657.98
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,160.62
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$695.34
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$703.51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,768Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,768.03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,062Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,592.28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.73
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$5,522Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$2,255.33
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.09
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+180.9%+$903.15
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$9,015Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$3,054.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$53
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$17,792Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+35%+$6,228.81
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$83,089Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+128.7%+$106,902.66
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,126.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$6,549Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,549.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,896Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,895.62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.