https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xf84dc12754f16b5c3d72df540ceb2d1f2907c613
Rebuilt .
Tailer profilescored on resolved markets · held to resolution
$1,454 staked over 30 qualified picks in 1 Category — none of them below 50.
Best Category
Parlays
$1,454 staked over 30 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.10 per pick.
See the full Parlays boardRecord by Category1 Categories
What these columns mean
- Weight
- The money this wallet put behind its qualified picks in this category — what it actually risked, rather than how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. It is never added to anything in the live account below: different populations, measured on different days.
- Qualified picks
- Every Pick this wallet made in this category that is large enough to be a real opinion and cheap enough that a follower could still have realised the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- The share of this wallet's qualified picks whose outcome won, with the wins and the losses beside it — 62% of eleven and 62% of eleven hundred are not the same claim. Held to resolution: a pick is graded on the market's winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand. No board is ranked by this: favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the entry prices already implied. Counted in wins: +8 means eight more than the prices this wallet paid were pricing in. It is the number that separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, once the worse entry price a follower gets is charged against it. The raw edge is what the wallet got; this is what copying it would have got. Edge that vanishes at two cents of slippage was never sellable.
- Avg entry
- The price this wallet paid, in cents, averaged across its qualified picks and weighted by how much it put on each. Buys only — selling out later does not change it. 88c beside a 90% win rate is a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The mean return on one pick, held to resolution, with every pick counted the same regardless of size. That equal weighting is the point: it is what tells a record earned across many picks apart from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number a wallet is ranked by in a category: its edge per pick, shrunk toward zero so that a short lucky run cannot outrank a long record, then graded out of 100 on a ruler that never moves. No edge at all grades 50, and a grade screenshotted today still means the same thing in six months. The scale itself is published with the figures it grades; this page holds no copy of it.
| Category | Weight | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Parlayslast resolved Sep 13, 2026, EDT | $1,454 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.5 | +0.18 | 35c | +75% | 61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on.
If you had taileda hypothetical — not a forecast
Nothing to tail here. This wallet has no qualified Parlays picks that resolved in the period shown, so there is nothing for a stake to have been placed on.
A hypothetical, worked out from this wallet’s own qualified Parlays picks and nothing else: $50 on each one, held to resolution, bought at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks charges inside its score. It is what those picks did, not what the next one will do, and it is before whatever your venue charges you to trade.
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 0
- What they are worth now
- $0bought for $0
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
This wallet holds nothing on a market that is still running. Everything below is settled and waiting to be cashed.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a count of shares and not a sum of money — what they are worth is the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price over what the wallet still holds. It is NOT the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked — the two answer different questions and are not the same number.
- Worth
- What those shares would fetch at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. A position the Venue has said nothing about is printed as not priced rather than as a zero, because a zero there would be a measurement nobody took.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · resolved | 3,420 | 4c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0xed32…e89dbacked outcome 0 | 2,940 | 10c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x96d8…6ff4backed outcome 0 | 2,280 | 10c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · resolved | 1,140 | 4c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · resolved | 1,080 | 4c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 2 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.