How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?
Wallets last checked .
https://tailmypicks.com/e/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.75% in October? (opens in a new tab)
Settled: Yes won. Yes: 2 wallets, $283 · No: 2 wallets, $295 2 of 4 wallets backed the winner.
What these columns mean
- Wallet
- A wallet that was in the top 200 of Fed Rates when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there.
- Side
- The side of this market the wallet's pick was on.
- Result
- Whether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled.
- Staked
- What the wallet paid for its pick on this side.
- Entry
- The average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents.
- Held to the end
- What the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| The pick on this market | Settled markets | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WalletA wallet that was in the top 200 of Fed Rates when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. | SideThe side of this market the wallet's pick was on. | ResultWhether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled. | StakedWhat the wallet paid for its pick on this side. | EntryThe average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents. | Held to the endWhat the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled. | Tail ScoreThe number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades. |
| 0xa53b…4021#2 on the board | No | lost (open this pick) | $214 | 59c | -$213.94 | 64 |
| 0x6b25…7a69#9 on the board | Yes | won (open this pick) | $20 | 46c | +$23.56 | 61 |
| 0x5768…3bae#21 on the board | No | lost (open this pick) | $81 | 61c | -$80.9 | 59 |
| 0xbc10…b8ef#59 on the board | Yes | won (open this pick) | $263 | 62c | +$163.09 | 55 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October? (opens in a new tab)
Settled: No won. Yes: 1 wallet, $22 · No: 1 wallet, $43 1 of 2 wallets backed the winner.
What these columns mean
- Wallet
- A wallet that was in the top 200 of Fed Rates when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there.
- Side
- The side of this market the wallet's pick was on.
- Result
- Whether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled.
- Staked
- What the wallet paid for its pick on this side.
- Entry
- The average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents.
- Held to the end
- What the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| The pick on this market | Settled markets | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WalletA wallet that was in the top 200 of Fed Rates when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. | SideThe side of this market the wallet's pick was on. | ResultWhether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled. | StakedWhat the wallet paid for its pick on this side. | EntryThe average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents. | Held to the endWhat the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled. | Tail ScoreThe number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades. |
| 0xa53b…4021#2 on the board | Yes | lost (open this pick) | $22 | 18c | -$22.5 | 64 |
| 0x5768…3bae#21 on the board | No | won (open this pick) | $43 | 76c | +$13.73 | 59 |
24 qualified picks on this market are not shown: we did not yet keep which wallets were in the top 50 when it was played.
28 qualified picks on this market are not shown: we did not yet keep which wallets were in the top 50 when it was played.
14 qualified picks on this market are not shown: we did not yet keep which wallets were in the top 50 when it was played.
11 qualified picks on this market are not shown: we did not yet keep which wallets were in the top 50 when it was played.
13 qualified picks on this market are not shown: we did not yet keep which wallets were in the top 50 when it was played.
19 qualified picks on this market are not shown: we did not yet keep which wallets were in the top 50 when it was played.
1 other settled market of this event is not shown: no top wallet of the time held a qualified pick on it.
About this page
A settled market shows the wallets that were in the top 200 when it was played, the same wallets its open page showed, with the pick each one held to the end and whether it won. Their place on the board is tonight's. A market played before 1 November 2026, when we began to keep the top 200, shows the top 50 of that time.