Wallet 0xa53b…4021
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xa53ba9d683f68602ccd767512d5c862a43824021
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 36
- What they are worth now
- $1,856
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 25
bought for $5,324
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 36, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes | 1,552shares | 68c | 28c | $427 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $67 Week of August 24 2026?backed Yes | 723.72shares | 47c | 49c | $355 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of August 24 2026?backed Yes | 543.95shares | 42c | 30c | $163 |
| Will Solana hit $300 by December 31, 2027?backed No | 184.11shares | 53c | 66c | $121 |
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes | 189.81shares | 44c | 57c | $108 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?backed No | 189.7shares | 41c | 39c | $74 |
| Will XRP hit $2 by March 31, 2027?backed No | 114.4shares | 57c | 53c | $61 |
| Market 0x3c86…3981backed outcome 0 | 189.82shares | 64c | 28c | $52 |
| Will Ethereum hit $6k by December 31, 2027?backed Yes | 151.01shares | 32c | 30c | $45 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027?backed Yes | 77.31shares | 68c | 56c | $44 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 25. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0xbbc8…3112backed outcome 0 | 4,088shares | 25c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?backed Yes · resolved | 2,527shares | 31c | $0 | Counted |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · resolved | 2,025shares | 20c | $0 | Counted |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in July?backed Yes · resolved | 1,676shares | 48c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x5f73…bbe9backed outcome 0 | 1,232shares | 15c | $0 | Not ingested |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 2 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 322
- Categories scored
- 6
- Categories below 50
- 2
Best Category: Commodities, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).
Best Category Commodities at 62 out of 100; worst Chess at 48.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commodities — the 294 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +230%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks — the 12 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Chesslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Chess — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.