Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b504f80d16acdb41f846c8cb08a826cf25b081c62348ceb2be83a27ad46b389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 73c | 1,775$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,078$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.57 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed No | 75c | 1,039$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 17c | 848.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 8c | 828.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 23c | 766.94$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 23c | 509.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes | 79c | 473.36$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 25c | 471.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed No | 21c | 463.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 459.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 27c | 409.72$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +230%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 73c | 359.2$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 294$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked No | 70c | 199.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…3c89backed No | 22c | 195.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 186.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 50c | 177.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…d271backed No | 16c | 154.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 140.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 59c | 140.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…f968backed No | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 125.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +268%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 13c | 112.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…b6e2backed Yes | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…e040backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…9c74backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 26c | 90.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 22c | 83.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 14c | 75.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 28c | 73.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 35c | 69.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 33c | 68.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 22c | 63.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 71c | 62.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…cd0bbacked No | 21c | 58.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 34c | 56.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 31c | 56.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 26c | 53.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…fb11backed Yes | 32c | 47.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 66c | 42.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 31c | 42.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 40.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…1751backed Yes | 25c | 40.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…1c05backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd6…e3ccbacked Yes | 74c | 38.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd7…203fbacked No | 52c | 38.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 79c | 22.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…6a0ebacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…c60dbacked Yes | 69c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.