TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,619 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes9c23,326$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0681…f713backed Yes2c4,696$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes9c4,568$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.012123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,401$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.75120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb025…eaaebacked Yes8c3,214$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,274$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes16c2,225$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.251533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+136.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes10c2,095$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.211936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e71…c117backed Yes4c2,079$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes29c1,391$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.91915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c9…6deabacked Yes19c1,346$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes3c1,194$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21020%2 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+165%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd515…14febacked Yes8c1,115$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1be4…c634backed Yes2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes11c999.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c865.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.69100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…1d4fbacked Yes20c838.81$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed No77c814.29$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes8c764.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes46c736.53$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.516631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c719.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2358.6%3 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43c8…0551backed Yes11c710$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes2c696.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5080…69d5backed Yes22c682.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeadf…26efbacked No59c681.84$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.84683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed Yes44c679.99$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.34425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes44c657.33$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.584117.1%7 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No52c639.99$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.3926237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No79c572.07$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.523245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5062…2c3dbacked Yes11c500$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3140…b176backed Yes27c422.35$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c351.33$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4327429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24da…0b29backed No64c346.23$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab20…5c57backed Yes50c320$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec29…d5c1backed No71c281.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.66450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5b…5d41backed No79c271.69$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f8…d3eabacked Yes11c265.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d34…9da0backed Yes48c240$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13df…1e2bbacked No52c240$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes50c231.15$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.761233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264b…cf7fbacked Yes23c219.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f93…2c07backed No52c209.3$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No77c190.73$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.87522.7%17 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes42c188.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.268524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd5…a9fbbacked Yes53c188.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes14c179.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3994…230ebacked Yes10c175$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes23c158.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.855844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes51c149.62$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cbe…9269backed Yes35c141.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfde…4006backed Yes23c139.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00a1…36c7backed Yes14c139.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes25c125.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.251117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes27c119.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.383737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x922c…f520backed Yes41c118.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes26c116.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.621637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e12…d115backed Yes23c110.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59a…91f1backed No78c110$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae16…c2a6backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4212360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No68c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.397844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb327…bb1fbacked Yes47c78.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed No54c75.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.551376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215835.4%56 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab75…738fbacked Yes16c66.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes21c57.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216426.8%44 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2b81backed No69c54.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae76…46d1backed Yes48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+1,049.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc25…8ecfbacked No78c49.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…8f57backed Yes47c43.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x741b…3cbfbacked Yes49c40.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe04…9a42backed Yes56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes57c39.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ff…61cebacked Yes29c38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes38c36.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143613.9%5 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x012d…1c53backed No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes34c35.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3254…351fbacked No74c23.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.134100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf570…aed2backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked No69c17.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.291827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5106…22e6backed No73c15.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e4e…7c90backed No79c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.