Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb102a10969575dd1b7de1671683bcdaf87f378cae3ba3a9c14aaa2bebf594b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 9c | 2,551$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 11c | 742.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 477.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 433$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 32c | 396.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…b498backed No | 17c | 234.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…9080backed No | 44c | 225.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 47c | 193.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 53c | 184.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 25c | 165.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…e5f9backed No | 15c | 133.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a0…0d5cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 56.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 72c | 54.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…929bbacked No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.