Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a808079973806afb2c4122da5fdf3d91db86985893b87ffbe39f57735ba259a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef22…8c02backed Yes | 1c | 5,412$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…932cbacked No | 61c | 2,400$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 2,067$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,580$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,513$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.32 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 80c | 1,380$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,092$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 967.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ecc7backed Yes | 19c | 890.43$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 35c | 829.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…46e5backed Yes | 6c | 658.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Yes | 10c | 537.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…64dabacked Yes | 15c | 451.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 62c | 365.88$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…222bbacked No | 64c | 305.44$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…a7b4backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 12c | 201.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 8c | 180.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…ccbebacked Yes | 18c | 135.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…8216backed Yes | 25c | 119.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 70c | 113.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 65c | 105.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 22c | 76.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 70c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…aa5ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 32.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 74c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.