Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9b7f32b72fd997c27d8dc2d3c54aa3e79b0891572099e0206cc9b6d0cdb5c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,057$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 56c | 1,203$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,166$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 3c | 929.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 58c | 767.57$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 17c | 750.18$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 3c | 750$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 720$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 77c | 663$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 17c | 590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 12c | 460.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 21c | 427.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.91 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed No | 51c | 292.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 37c | 243.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 23c | 201.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd7…203fbacked No | 76c | 169$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 49c | 151$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 79c | 135$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 40c | 131$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 57c | 115$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 83.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Yes | 21c | 78.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 64.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 31c | 63.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 26c | 55.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked No | 29c | 54.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 60c | 49.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 33c | 39.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 55c | 36.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 31c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 31.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1696…7ceebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…1d89backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 67c | 22.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…238cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…3c89backed Yes | 66c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b0…c15cbacked Yes | 70c | 14.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.