TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x321f…6100

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT2060%12 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.3
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.01
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.43
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$23.92
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+178.3%+$45.18
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$24.25
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$10.79
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.91
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.01
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$29.63
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$17.93
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$9.24
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.88
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$48.93
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$39.57
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+88.7%+$18.8
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+57.1%+$6.25
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$69.2
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$27.2
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$155.26
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$203.3
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$51.58
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11.53
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$18.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+31.6%+$7.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+143.9%+$29.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-68.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+91.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+256.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+256.4%+$107.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$25.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+122.6%+$110.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+46.6%+$10.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$17.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.