Stocks · resolved market
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9835c2e092c5cfd3815a6effd87ad2073548055a3c4ac37519965828a0dfba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 12c | 8,402$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 80c | 2,300$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.88 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,309$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 770.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 17c | 751.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 21c | 699.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…1c92backed Yes | 14c | 501.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 78c | 499.82$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…3c2cbacked Yes | 21c | 475.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 470$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…fc2dbacked Yes | 13c | 382.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 380.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 11c | 364.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 353.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 7c | 293.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 238.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked Yes | 23c | 217.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 14c | 198.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 7c | 169.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 79c | 164.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 78c | 159.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…a77bbacked Yes | 10c | 142.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 135.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 13c | 134$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 129$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 17c | 126.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 18c | 125.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 10c | 111.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c03bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 18c | 88.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 22c | 81.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 24c | 63.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 59.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5972backed Yes | 23c | 50.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e1…772fbacked No | 79c | 48.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?this page
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.