Stocks · resolved market
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82c931a2a67cf4f2a1c5ef7536494060707d1c35b6716c0cbe3ac9c011411e06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,813$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed No | 29c | 1,099$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a55…6be2backed No | 6c | 398.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 55c | 362$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.88 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 59c | 302$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 62c | 260$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 70c | 210.04$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 65c | 175$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 12c | 106.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 66c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…7b70backed Yes | 78c | 50.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…a1d7backed Yes | 78c | 50.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 36.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 79c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…7c2ebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?this page
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.