Stocks · resolved market
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8af9797c16ca75078b5ab501602e8791a5d1a8b9b5ba69a30f9d14becf9c6415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 7c | 16,152$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.76 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 9,502$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…3520backed Yes | 6c | 6,868$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,225$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac7…039fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,680$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,440$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…fc2dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,111$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…2505backed Yes | 14c | 1,918$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 11c | 1,611$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ac…78e4backed Yes | 4c | 1,609$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e04…a600backed Yes | 4c | 1,562$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,490$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad24…0445backed Yes | 7c | 1,431$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…cf37backed Yes | 9c | 1,202$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…c3c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,194$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a20…4b67backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 874.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 856.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5860…a02dbacked Yes | 11c | 662.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 572.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 6c | 520.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…fc95backed Yes | 11c | 517.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…1c92backed Yes | 8c | 480.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…dd09backed Yes | 22c | 461.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…bcb8backed Yes | 9c | 455.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 12c | 444.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…8b29backed Yes | 11c | 435.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…71efbacked Yes | 8c | 416.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…3e2dbacked Yes | 7c | 298.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…7d7ebacked Yes | 14c | 285$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…9e1ebacked Yes | 9c | 273.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…00ddbacked Yes | 6c | 269.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 261.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2e43backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes | 7c | 205.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 12c | 123.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 11c | 106.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 87.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e3…fd66backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +83%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 78c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?this page
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.