Stocks · resolved market
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6ec8ef87705b95e55e0bc3482e6ece684557024df3edee871f8b9f39d0f7f61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90c2…8c24backed No | 23c | 1,414$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 45c | 1,240$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed No | 26c | 981.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.76 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…4a03backed No | 55c | 923.63$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 46c | 795.07$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.29 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 51c | 642$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.19 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 37c | 572.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 26c | 554.68$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.95 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…df81backed No | 44c | 500.1$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 477.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed No | 27c | 461.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 74c | 448.72$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 21c | 423.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +294.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…747cbacked Yes | 75c | 399.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 30c | 291.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 73c | 269.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 26c | 268.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 238.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…3b59backed No | 27c | 232.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 40c | 224.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…7b70backed Yes | 73c | 223.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 51c | 218.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 12c | 206.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 30c | 190.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 69c | 188.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 28c | 178.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 73c | 160.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 29c | 159.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 17c | 137.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 121.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 117.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5e…3871backed No | 59c | 111.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 45c | 107.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 103.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…b376backed Yes | 70c | 97.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…3252backed Yes | 49c | 96.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d9…3b92backed No | 67c | 95.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba2…315cbacked Yes | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 52c | 87.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 17c | 86.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 48c | 83.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…5ee4backed Yes | 78c | 82.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…e776backed Yes | 40c | 81.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 53c | 81.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 67c | 75.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 74.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 25c | 73.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 47c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 52c | 71.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 50c | 69.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 31c | 63.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 31c | 63.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 52c | 62.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed No | 77c | 55.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 31c | 54.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 49c | 53.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…1d31backed Yes | 60c | 50.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…df46backed Yes | 70c | 50.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked No | 65c | 49.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 77c | 47.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 54c | 47.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148d…f106backed No | 24c | 46.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…a1d7backed Yes | 63c | 45.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…fdacbacked Yes | 70c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 41.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…bf1ebacked Yes | 59c | 41.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb297…d832backed Yes | 73c | 41.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…e024backed No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…02a5backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…fc15backed No | 53c | 37.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 31c | 37.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed Yes | 53c | 37.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 80c | 37.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e175backed No | 53c | 37.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 48c | 35.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…0456backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…bceebacked No | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…a919backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 59c | 28.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 27.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b70…67e7backed Yes | 72c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 77c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 59c | 24.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…bcb8backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…c5f8backed Yes | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b0…2554backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…c870backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?this page
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.