TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xac96…7ec2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Music, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Music at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 34.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.2wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$65
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$25.54
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+63%+$48.49
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$77.2
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+150%+$600
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$636.7
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+284.1%+$85.24
Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+32.8%+$16.41
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked DetonatioN FocusMe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+33.9%+$34.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+26.6%+$13.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.