TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,165 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes60c800$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.0722333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes67c679.19$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.733046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed No59c305$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No36c275$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1764050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No39c257.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.054757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No32c242.5$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc5b…c40dbacked Yes61c199.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes62c193.12$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0212524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8a…fd8dbacked No38c181.88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.22580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+148.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes14c164.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.715812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4dfb…3a75backed Yes62c153.22$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes61c150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.57939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed No33c149.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes61c139.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3821751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No37c138.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No47c135$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked No38c131.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ad…0a36backed Yes62c110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No76c106.78$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5317449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No46c105.9$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.963080%24 W · 6 L+8.6wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.4%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x823c…5046backed No36c105$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+48.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed No39c102.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.569100%9 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+130.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6017755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes62c96.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98e…bd6fbacked No40c87.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick33cpaid+225%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7da3…1336backed Yes59c86.93$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.44333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9c…26dfbacked No37c77.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+87.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes64c73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.911643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No51c71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed No41c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1940…f54abacked No35c68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+68%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked No41c61.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.711181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+40.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed No39c59.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.322751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes59c58.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25d6…1c7bbacked No36c55.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc833…0234backed Yes61c50.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.561030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22ca…ef7fbacked Yes61c49.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1240…6419backed Yes61c48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.45541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2418929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…e5c9backed Yes67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes48c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9515523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes41c30.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x958f…a83cbacked No40c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.8wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-53.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes66c28.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.131127.3%3 W · 8 L-4.9wins-0.44per pick71cpaid-59.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2ddf…1b96backed No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8603…0bbabacked Yes57c22.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.73825%2 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-30%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa526…34aabacked Yes71c21.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x505e…affcbacked Yes64c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.441723.5%4 W · 13 L-8.2wins-0.48per pick71cpaid-67.1%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.2wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7412…d234backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23158.1%18 W · 13 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+59.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x64f6…557fbacked Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.8wins-0.43per pick65cpaid-57.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes62c19.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.381450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.