Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa01b8c8c3ed8766dea61ba14fdfbf0ab8ec99b5bbbe74c22e58b8436979fc83e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 60c | 800$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.07 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 67c | 679.19$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.73 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 59c | 305$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 36c | 275$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 39c | 257.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.05 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 32c | 242.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.9 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…c40dbacked Yes | 61c | 199.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 62c | 193.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…fd8dbacked No | 38c | 181.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 164.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…3a75backed Yes | 62c | 153.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 61c | 139.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 37c | 138.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 47c | 135$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked No | 38c | 131.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ad…0a36backed Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 76c | 106.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 46c | 105.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…5046backed No | 36c | 105$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…bd6fbacked No | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +225%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…1336backed Yes | 59c | 86.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 37c | 77.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 64c | 73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 35c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 41c | 61.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 39c | 59.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes | 59c | 58.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…1c7bbacked No | 36c | 55.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…2ba5backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…0234backed Yes | 61c | 50.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…ef7fbacked Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…6419backed Yes | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…e5c9backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 41c | 30.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.8wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.9wins | -0.44per pick | 71cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…1b96backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8603…0bbabacked Yes | 57c | 22.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…34aabacked Yes | 71c | 21.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -8.2wins | -0.48per pick | 71cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.33per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…557fbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 62c | 19.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dancing" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.