Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa509a6ea84f5b957d98b9cdffe6c6fbcedfef8a93cbbc37d937f8a077973b607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe052…3108backed Yes | 69c | 1,263$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…c84bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 30c | 398.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.9 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 30c | 350$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes | 66c | 271.81$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 63c | 178.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 32c | 155.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 34c | 145.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 64c | 142.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 79c | 126.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -6.2wins | -0.44per pick | 51cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 30c | 121$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 30c | 119.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed Yes | 65c | 111$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8603…0bbabacked Yes | 70c | 92.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 35c | 90.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Yes | 44c | 90.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…a3c8backed Yes | 31c | 86.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 80c | 84.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 31c | 80.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +6.9wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 72.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +108%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…fb05backed No | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…1cf0backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 42c | 57.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…5046backed No | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked No | 30c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 42.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x528c…c3d3backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.8wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 76c | 39.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.33per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 38.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 51c | 32.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 74c | 28.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 72c | 27.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.9wins | -0.44per pick | 71cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…f44abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…3ce4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dancing" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.