Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ffa290757d50edd475e24e9c51cc87c9783e140c1a4510c728a5ff8f59339f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 54c | 1,377$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.13 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 60c | 1,132$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.09 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 47c | 807.21$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.84 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 34c | 592.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.49 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 43c | 479$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.97 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 43c | 473.02$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.22 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…c787backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 36c | 280.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +6.9wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 33c | 265.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 66c | 264.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.23 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 40c | 246.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 80c | 245.68$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 50c | 201.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed No | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 33c | 180.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…7d89backed Yes | 6c | 171.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 74c | 134.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 25c | 109.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 31c | 109.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4907backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed No | 51c | 98.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 69c | 75.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…4737backed Yes | 66c | 75.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 25c | 53.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…7137backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 31c | 47.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 46.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 73c | 46.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.33per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed No | 80c | 44.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 37cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 38.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…0234backed Yes | 67c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…3b86backed Yes | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 76c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 58c | 25.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.9wins | -0.44per pick | 71cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…ed09backed Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -8.2wins | -0.48per pick | 71cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55d4…88ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…7ababacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 67c | 18.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…9cc3backed Yes | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 70c | 14.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dancing" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.