TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1b0c…1a42

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
284
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST15520%31 W · 124 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 155 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$175.42
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$144
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$59.51
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+143.4%+$517.49
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$610.45
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$236.41
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$82.99
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$333.5
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$80.49
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+206.8%+$404.41
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+822%+$4,304.04
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,274.46
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$146.06
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$233.89
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+100%+$95
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$348.31
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$252.79
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$29.75
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+852.4%+$340.1
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$59.5
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$50.96
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$394.49
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$128
Showing 25 of 155 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST2934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5)backed CA Osasuna · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$132
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.02
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$294.95
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+376.2%+$711
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$38.98
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$664.75
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+123.8%+$745.79
Will Mallorca win on 2025-12-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$157
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)backed Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+257.1%+$514.29
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+44.9%+$160.46
Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$336.05
Will Alaves win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$228
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.7
Will Real Madrid vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+54.9%+$103.38
Will Osasuna win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Girona win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.95
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.04
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+38.7%+$140.32
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$183.48
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$97.75
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST2445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$216.93
Will Kosovo win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$151.64
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$252.42
Will Poland win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+71.8%+$144.02
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+222.6%+$289.35
Will England win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+33.3%+$66.33
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$92.49
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+1,023.6%+$409.44
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+58.8%+$231.27
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$63.86
Will Liechtenstein vs. Wales end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$75.6
Will Austria win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+33.3%+$67.82
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$135.53
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+122.2%+$298.22
Will Finland vs. Malta end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$91
Will Malta win on 2025-11-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+47.1%+$142.39
Will Hungary vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$84
Will Switzerland win on 2025-09-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$122.54
Will Greece win on 2025-09-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$344.4
Will Spain win on 2025-09-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$448Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$252
Will Türkiye vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Scotland win on 2025-09-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
All 24 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$26.4
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+88.7%+$37.83
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$620
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+185.7%+$241.43
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$139.35
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$95.9
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$279
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+158.2%+$593.52
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.27
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$159.17
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+37%+$36.59
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.49
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Netherlands vs. Spainbacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$20
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Trump blames Biden for Iran-Israel escalation by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.08
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.32
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$183.41
Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Donald Trump issue 31-33 executive orders in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32.04
Will Donald Trump issue 28-30 executive orders in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$554.83
Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+244.8%+$420.37
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$599.53
Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+37%+$74.83
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+55.4%+$129.76
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CDA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+129.2%+$129.18
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+147.8%+$424.79
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+58.7%+$52.11
Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$223.95
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$59
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$249.92
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$222.76
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.99
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$225.52
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.21
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+160.1%+$201.68
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$166
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$71.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakiabacked Slovakia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$146.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$368.2
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$144
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 9, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+300%+$600
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 September 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$48.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$37.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy guilty of all charges?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Inter (-1.5)backed Inter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$169.83
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.