Fifa International · resolved market
Will Hungary vs. Portugal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4916d94659523abd0a3a2843c0ba60706e98971c53d90e7d6054ca3e0d713569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 11,264$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,267.05 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 20c | 4,215$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked No | 79c | 2,400$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 78c | 1,188$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.63 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 891$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 17c | 875.19$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 600$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 380.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 28c | 282.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…0a39backed Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 15c | 198.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 17c | 185.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 29c | 178.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 19c | 178.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…844cbacked Yes | 26c | 164.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…0b31backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 49c | 106.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…2b82backed Yes | 14c | 69.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 74c | 48.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 32c | 42.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hungary vs. Portugal end in a draw?this page
- Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09?No won
- Will Portugal win on 2025-09-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.