World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab92e169ad06ac4e922afeabea9dfe925d3adfe38c735f80b95281042d1af298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3471…0512backed No | 1c | 3,085$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 44c | 2,700$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.98 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,180$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.7 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…fa36backed Yes | 30c | 1,650$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 32c | 1,506$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.46 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 1,204$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.68 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 27c | 1,116$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.1 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…8e07backed No | 1c | 921.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 22c | 770$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.25 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 78c | 738.06$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 42c | 703.37$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.95 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 49c | 686.31$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…74a9backed No | 2c | 667$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 28c | 580$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.7 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 35c | 576.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 45c | 561.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 541.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 37c | 541.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 55c | 536.28$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.83 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 73c | 452$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 405.79$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.12 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 38c | 327.64$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 320.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.32 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 32c | 296.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.45 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…6378backed Yes | 28c | 289.29$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 26c | 250.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 30c | 219.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.55 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 209.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.28 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 24c | 205$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 63c | 173.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 56c | 143.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 66c | 138$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 39c | 108.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 31c | 94.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 66c | 76.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 74.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…43ffbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 28c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 26c | 62.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa192…79d6backed Yes | 30c | 59.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…dc41backed Yes | 46c | 53.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…f6d2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 50c | 49.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…dca0backed Yes | 40c | 47.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…9405backed No | 50c | 38.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…abc4backed Yes | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 32% and 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win more than 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.