World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win more than 34% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3012cc4502e87e2183101e4179574b72f11f72e8df9218d54b7c1896107b41dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0c0…f9e6backed Yes | 0c | 60,352$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 5c | 5,824$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…25f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,674$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…10f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 978.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Yes | 3c | 918.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 5c | 898.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 797.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 3c | 795.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2614backed Yes | 3c | 615.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 290.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win more than 34% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 32% and 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.